LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 12:32 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...874
FXUS64 KLIX 141732
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
Boundary layer mixing has started to erode the fog and
visibilties have improved dramatically in the past 30 minutes
across metro Baton Rouge, the River Parishes, and the Bayou
Region. Since dense fog is no longer occurring, the dense fog
advisory has been cancelled for the area. Lingering light fog will
fully dissipate in the next 30 to 45 minutes leaving partly cloudy
skies behind. PG
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
Similar conditions from yesterday expected today except for the
return of rain chances. The remnants of Francine, obviously no longer
tropical, are slowly sagging southward from northeastern AR across
northern Mississippi. A weak moisture convergence axis appears to
develop today between that broad surface low and weak surface ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico. CAMs and global models in good agreement
that a few showers and possibly some thunderstorms will develop
along this boundary. Not too confident on the actual coverage as
PW's are very low and it'll take some time for the mid and upper
levels to saturate. Thus, feeling a bit more sure of the higher
coverage in the forecast Sunday into Monday as those remnants of
Francine push further south towards the northern Gulf Coast.
Luckily, this time the impacts will be drastically less with only
light to moderate rain expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
The remainder of the forecast should be a gradual transition back to
a drier pattern. Upper level ridge situated west of the CWA over TX
and the Central Plains will expand slightly east while broad
troughing over the southeastern CONUS moves farther east. This
should put the local area in a region of higher subsidence and thus
less to no rain chances. Temps might but slightly above normal but
not but by a degree or 2 as the ridge will still be west of the CWA
and not particularly strong.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
A weak frontal boundary will slide into the region this afternoon,
and this could spark off some scattered convective activity in the
evening hours. The highest convective probabilities exist at ASD
and GPT. Have opted to include some VCTS wording at ASD from 23z
to 03z since the greatest risk of thunderstorm development is
forecast for this terminal. At GPT, the risk is lower, and no
mention of TS is included in the forecast. Later in the forecast
period, boundary layer conditions once again look favorable for
fog and low stratus development to occur at MCB and BTR between
10z and 14z. The remaining terminals will see MVFR ceilings of
1000 to 2000 feet form around this time period, but boundary layer
conditions are less favorable for fog development. PG
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
All terminals currently VFR. Can't totally preclude low clouds
and/or fog briefly around sunrise this morning considering the light
winds and rather saturated soils across the region. A few obs west
of KBTR already have 6sm, so worth monitoring. Do expect some
cumulus to develop this afternoon as a moisture convergence axis
develops across southern LA and MS today. Although have 20 POPs in
the forecast, confidence is too low to have any mention in the TAFs
at this time. If had to put VCTS/VCSH in any of them, would probably
do KNEW, KMSY and KHUM.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024
Light winds and relaxed seas/waves expected through the entire
forecast period with surface ridge nearby. Although a brief period of
hazardous marine conditions are possible from a storm, generally
expect winds around 5 knots and seas/wave around a foot.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 84 68 83 / 20 20 10 60
BTR 70 89 72 88 / 30 10 10 40
ASD 70 87 71 86 / 30 20 20 60
MSY 73 86 73 86 / 20 20 10 50
GPT 70 85 71 84 / 30 30 30 60
PQL 71 88 71 86 / 30 40 40 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...ME
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 12:32 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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