IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 2:33 AM EDT769
FXUS63 KIND 150633
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
233 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and quiet weather expected through this
week
- Afternoon RH values will be near or below 30% over the next few
days
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
Strong surface high pressure centered over the Northeast will
continue to remain the dominant weather feature as ridging extends
west across the Ohio Valley. Expect quiet weather conditions through
the short term period for this reason. Another warm day is in store
with temperatures well in the 80s. Subsidence combined with diurnal
mixing will result in low RH values at least briefly around 25-30%
this afternoon. While brief critical RH values are expected, light
winds should greatly limit any fire weather concerns.
Good radiational cooling and a dry airmass will allow for
temperatures to quickly cool after sunset. Expect a large diurnal
swing in temperatures with near seasonal lows in the mid-upper 50s
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
Monday through Wednesday...
The upper pattern will continue to show deep troughing aloft over
the western CONUS early in the week, with ridging aloft over the
east coast. The ridging aloft will steer any upper forcing well
north of Indiana, across Ontario and Quebec. An upper level high
pressure system over the northeastern states is also noted, as all
these features are protecting Indiana from any potential
precipitation. This stacked high had influence to the lower levels,
resulting in dry lower levels through Monday and into Tuesday. With
little overall change in the air mass, a persistence type forecast,
with continued mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.
A caveat in play includes a quasi-tropical system as noted by the
NHC. This system appears to come onshore in the southeastern states
on Monday, before continuing on a slow northwest track through mid
week. Uncertainty exists on how far west as well as how organized
this feature may be upon arrival within our vicinity. Forecast
soundings do suggest a bit more saturation within the column on
Tuesday night and into Wednesday, however confidence is too low on
the progression of this poorly organized system to include anything
other than a few more clouds on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...
As we progress to the end of the week, the remains of the quasi-
tropical system are suggested to dissipate and weaken. There is more
confidence in the overall upper pattern of an Omega Block developing
across the CONUS. This pattern will result in Indiana being located
on the lee side of the upper ridge, residing in an area of
subsidence, just east of the upper ridge axis. Meanwhile within the
lower levels, dry, easterly flow looks predominant, controlled by
strong surface high pressure still anchored over the NE United
States and Quebec. Again, with little change in the air mass, above
normal temperatures with highs in the 80s will be expected.
Although outside of our typical forecast period, the next best
chance for rain may not be until sometime in late September, when a
strong cold front may finally allow an intrusion of Canada air.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
Impacts:
- A few gusts around 15KT Sunday
Discussion:
A stagnant pattern will keep quiet weather across the area
throughout the TAF period, with VFR conditions and little to no sky
cover.
Winds will generally be between about 080-120 throughout the period.
Sustained winds will be light the remainder of the night, and less
than 10KT most of the period, with some occasional gusts on Sunday
to around 14-17KT.
No obstructions to visibility are expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 2:33 AM EDT---------------
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