CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 10:30 PM EDT839
FXUS61 KCLE 160230
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1030 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of
the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and
potentially impacts portions of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1030 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
this update. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper
50s tonight, but a few spots along the lakeshore may stay in the
slightly warmer lower 60s.
Previous Discussion...
The forecast will continue to be quiet for the next couple of
days. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather
pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high
pressure will track westward through the Mid- Atlantic region by
Monday night. This system will bring an increase in high level
clouds by Monday evening. In the meantime, we will continue to
see mostly clear skies and beautiful weather conditions. High
temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Overnight low temps will be in the middle to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system over the southeast United States will lift
north toward the local area for Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
still uncertainty on if this system will be a formal tropical or
subtropical system, but it remains highlighted by the NHC.
Regardless, there remains some consensus on this feature bringing at
least a little hope for some clouds and rain into the region for the
middle of the week. There are still some timing disparities among
the main operational models, but Wednesday remains as the most
favorable day for rain and have maximum PoPs at a 40% chance for the
eastern half of the forecast area. However, excitement about rain
remains guarded as the low entering the region will encounter
resistance from a closed upper high and a substantially dry air mass
in a drought region and in the end, not expecting over 0.25" of rain
through Wednesday night. With clouds into the region, temperatures
will settle toward normal in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A remnant low will remain across the region for Thursday, but
an upper ridge will start to shove the system east. Some lift
and residual moisture in the area should keep clouds about and
temperatures near or a couple degrees above normal. However, the
ridge will shift east for the weekend and dry and warmer
conditions should take hold with surface high pressure to the
northeast. Temperatures should return to the 80s for most.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable or out of the southeast and less than 10 knots
overnight before becoming more east/northeasterly and increasing
to 5 to 10 knots by Monday afternoon. The higher northeast
winds closer to 10 knots will be located behind the lake breeze
boundary.
Outlook...VFR expected through Tuesday afternoon. A low
pressure system may approach the region from the southeast and
bring non-VFR conditions by the middle of the week, but expect
VFR conditions to return for Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface high east of the region will allow for dry conditions and
generally light east to southeast flow through Monday. Afternoon
lake breezes should develop and there could be some enhanced
easterlies during the afternoon and evening that could allow for
some unpleasant conditions for some of the central basin. A low
pressure system will enter from the southeast for the middle of the
week and east to northeast flow will be favored. This low will be
pushed out of the region by Friday, when high pressure to the
northeast will continue some form of east to northeast flow. There
are no imminent headline concerns on the lake.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 10:30 PM EDT---------------
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