BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 10:27 AM EDT140
FXUS61 KBOX 111427
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1027 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through at
least early next week, maintaining dry weather and above average
temperatures for the foreseeable future.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tranquil weather continues. Only minor changes needed to bring
the forecast back in line with observed trends.
705 AM Update:
Very quiet weather conditions this morning, which will be the
theme for the next several days. No changes made to the forecast
as of this update, please see the previous discussion below.
145 AM Update:
Center of a 1022 mb surface anticyclone was located near
Binghamton NY per regional METARs; this high pressure was
supplying light winds and clear skies into Southern New England
early this morning. The customary large variation in current
temps exists in such a regime, with temps ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s in the typically cooler spots, and the mid 50s
to around 60 in the urban areas, the hilly terrain and the
coasts. Could see patchy river valley fog develop in interior
New England toward daybreak, but it should be short-lived and
erode quickly with sunrise.
The aforementioned high pressure cell will gradually progress
ESE into the waters offshore of southeastern New England through
today. Wall to wall sun is expected which will push highs well
into the 70s/spot 80 degrees for most. However local seabreezes
are expected to develop on both coasts, and that will keep highs
in the lower 70s. But all in all, another beautiful day on tap
for Southern New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
145 AM Update:
Tonight:
High pressure to remain parked offshore, allowing for continued
dry weather to prevail, along with good radiational cooling.
850 mb temps are a little warmer, around +11 to +13C, and that
should yield low temps a little warmer, in the upper 40s to
mid/upper 50s given the expected strong radiational cooling.
Dewpoints/moisture levels are also a little higher too, and that
could bring a better chance at radiation fog away from the
typical river valley locations. Visibility guidance seems to
indicate eastern CT as well as RI and MA as being most
vulnerable to fog development, as well as in/around I-495 in MA,
in the overnight to early morning hrs. Indicated fog in the
forecast for these locations, but the bigger deterrent to fog
development is how dry we've been with a lack of significant
rainfall spanning several days.
Thursday:
Any fog which developed overnight to dissipate shortly after
sunrise. High pressure will continue to bring a light southerly
wind and dry weather to Southern New England. There is a low-
amplitude and shortwave trough which moves across northern New
England; the lack of lower level moisture with this feature
should mean this trough passes through with little fanfare,
however probably will see more partly sunny skies than the
mostly clear skies we've seen the last couple days. It looks
like S/SW winds will keep the seabreeze from developing, except
along the immediate south coast, and perhaps into the North
Shore area in MA. Highs should reach well into the 70s to the
low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
* High pressure remains in control through early next week,
allowing for continued dry weather.
The extended forecast remains largely unchanged after reviewing
the 00z guidance. As mentioned, the Northeast is under the
influence of a mid-level ridge and surface high-pressure
Thursday night through early next week. Expect dry conditions
throughout the extended period, with the only wrinkle occurring
sometime Friday, perhaps the afternoon, as a weak shortwave
moves along the outer periphery of the mid-level high over
southern New England. BUFKIT soundings show very little vertical
saturation, suggesting perhaps a few cumulus clouds with a very
low chance of an isolated shower. Global ensembles, includes
DESI, show a low probability (less than 10%) for 0.01" of
precipitation over 24 hours. As a result, there was no need to
deviate from the NBM POPs, which remain below 5% during this
period. The center of the high settles over the region by the
weekend and may remain in place through Tuesday. The next chance
for any wetting rain appears to arrive late next week.
As for temperatures, expect a gradual warm-up, with the warmest
days from Friday to Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to
the mid- 80s, at the coast a tad cooler in the upper 70s. Given
our set up of clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling
is likely, and overnight lows were adjusted using a blend of the
10th percentile of the NBM. Expect lows in the low to mid-50s
through Tuesday.
There is activity in the Eastern Atlantic along the
Intertropical Convergence Zone, where one area shows modest
probabilities, greater than 60% of development over the next 7
days, while a secondary area shows less than 40% chance of
development over the next 7 days, that is according to NHC.
Fortunately for our region, strong surface high and mid-level
steering should keep any tropical impacts away - for now.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Today: High confidence.
VFR. Winds start light northerly but will trend light SE/S as
the day progresses. Seabreezes developing around 15z at BOS and
around 17-19z at PVD; winds become light southerly at these
airports between 23z Wed-00z Thu.
Tonight: High confidence overall, though is moderate on fog
development.
Mainly VFR; higher moisture levels would favor a better chance
for patchy radiation fog in southeast MA and RI and into
portions of eastern CT after 06z Thurs. May need to introduce
mention of BR/FG for the Cape airports and perhaps into PVD too
with later TAFs issuances. Light SE to S winds, calm at times.
Thursday: High confidence.
Any fog which developed overnight becomes VFR early Thurs AM.
S/SW winds around 5-10 kt; looks like eastern MA seabreeze stays
offshore of KBOS.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Seabreeze develops
around 15z Wed and becomes a light southerly wind around 00z
Thurs.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. River valley fog may develop
near the airport 09-12z Wed but should not cause visibility
restrictions. Otherwise VFR with light winds becoming southerly
around 5 kt this aftn.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
145 AM Update:
Through Thursday: High confidence.
High pressure builds over the waters today and parks itself
there over the next several days. Light winds with daily sea
breezes are expected, and seas 2 ft or less expected.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 10:27 AM EDT----------------
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