CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 1:27 AM EDT341
FXUS61 KCLE 150527
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes region through
the middle of next week with very quiet weather and above
average temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM EDT Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
this update. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower
60s overnight.
Previous Discussion...
There is not much to write about for the near term forecast
this weekend. There is a big upper level ridge of high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes region which will keep our weather
very quiet with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. High
temperatures this afternoon and Sunday afternoon will feel very
summerlike in the middle to upper 80s. A weak lake breeze will
stay near the lakeshore area and keep temps in the low 80s right
along the lake. Overnight low temps will be rather pleasant
thanks to a dry airmass and the longer night we are having as we
approach the Fall Equinox time of year. Temps at night will be
in the middle 50s to near 60 degrees. Winds will be light from
the east or southeast this weekend 10 mph or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level high with surface high pressure over the New England
states will persist across the area on Monday into Tuesday. Dry
conditions will be expected on Monday through the daytime hours on
Tuesday with continued above normal temperatures in the 80s. Coastal
low will develop and deepen off the Carolinas early next week and
this system will drift north toward the central Appalachians on
Tuesday. Clouds and a slight rain chance are possible on Tuesday
night. However, there is some spread in the guidance where the
system may slow and be a long term problem below or just entirely
miss the local area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main attention for the entire forecast period will be for
Wednesday and Thursday. The main focus will be the evolution of a
low off the Carolina coast early next week. There is some evidence
that this could become a defined tropical feature next week, as
displayed by NHC. Most guidance members have this system lifting
north into the central Appalachians but with distinct timing
differences. The mean timing for impacts into the forecast area is
on Wednesday when there is a larger area of slight chance PoPs and
increased cloud coverage. However, the strength of the upper level
high may continue to slow this feature or even prevent it into the
area. Therefore, will just modestly bump PoPs up to a slight chance,
but the trend is up. Behind this low for Friday into Saturday, a
ridge will return the region and dry conditions with above normal
temperatures will be expected once again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure continues to remain dominant across the area,
lending to a prolong period of widespread VFR conditions that
will continue to persist through the first part of this week.
For this morning, cannot rule out some very isolated patchy fog,
especially in the lower valleys, but with low confidence of it
occurring at any terminal, did not include in the TAFs. Winds
will continue to persist from the east-southeast at 5-10 knots
today. The exception will again by the lakeshore terminals,
including KERI, KCLE, and possibly KTOL, that will again by
impacted by a lake breeze through sunset.
Outlook...VFR expected through Tuesday night. A low pressure
system may approach the region from the southeast and bring
non-VFR conditions by the middle of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Much like yesterday, afternoon northeast flow is increasing and
there will be a slight increase in wave action over the central
basin this afternoon and evening. The surface high will be further
east on Sunday and Monday and there should be a better component of
offshore flow before lake breezes develop for the afternoon and
evening hours. A low pressure system will enter from the southeast
for the middle of the week and east to northeast flow will be
favored. There are no imminent headline concerns on the lake but
times of east and northeast flow could allow for some unpleasant
conditions.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin/Maines
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 1:27 AM EDT---------------
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