Author Topic: [Alert]PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:06 AM CDT  (Read 433 times)

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PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:06 AM CDT

864 
FXUS63 KPAH 130706
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
206 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Francine and her remnants may produce up to another 1-2 inches
  of rainfall heading into the weekend. She's also still capable
  of producing some 15-25 mph wind gusts at times.

- After Francine's departure, a drier and warmer forecast will
  kick in by the middle to latter part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Extra-tropical rain bands are ongoing as Francine's circulation
centers over northeast Arkansas, where it wobbles and basically
stays thru the day today, before drifting southeastward as we
head into/thru the weekend. While northern reaches of the
region may only see about another 1/4" or so of rainfall,
that'll transition higher further south across the region, with
southern parts of western Ky potentially reaching up to another
2 inches. Also in play are gusty winds 15-25 mph. The
clouds/pcpn will keep increasingly humid conditions not as
unbearable as they may be otherwise, as temperatures max out
from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

For the new week, we see high pressure build across the Ohio
Valley, while an inverted trof of lower presure extends from the
Deep South into/across Missouri. That'll offer just enough
warmth/moisture to keep a small pop in the forecast early in the
week, which ultimately withers away by mid week as warmer/drier
air takes over. Highs return to the lower-middle 80s early in
the week and by week's end, we see a push into the upper 80s
once again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

A transition from low VFR to MFVR cigs/vsbys will occur as
Francine's rain bands spiral northward across the terminals. IFR
cigs just upstream may reach our terminals at times, esp from
KCGI-KPAH-KMVN. The wind gradient will produce 15-25 kt gusts at
times as well. Some improvement in overall conditions may be
noted during the planning phase of the forecast as Francine
begins drifting further away, but marginal restrictions may
still be offered to cigs/vsbys at times.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:06 AM CDT

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