BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 1:31 AM EDT406
FXUS61 KBOX 090531
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
131 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and cool tonight as high pressure builds over the Ohio
Valley. Slowly moderating temperatures Monday with risk of
spotty showers in the interior late in the day and evening as a
weak front approaches. Abnormally warm/dry weather persists
through next weekend as high pressure establishes itself over
the east CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM update...
Clear skies across SNE this evening, other than some patchy
strato-cu across interior northern MA. Winds have become light
away from the immediate coast where temps have fallen through
the 50s. Current forecast looks reasonable with lows mid-upper
40s, and low 50s immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
An overall quiet weather day to start the second week of September
with high pressure passing to our south. This keeps clear skies in
the forecast at least for the first half of the day before a mid
level trough axis and associated moisture move overhead. For most of
southern New England this shows up in the form of diurnal cloudcover
after noon while some locations in the interior will see a quick
passing shower. QPF with any of these showers will be very minimal
given marginal PWATs and weak forcing but the weak surface front
coupled with the cold pool aloft will provide enough instability and
lift to kick off some showers. These rain chances begin over NW MA
late on Monday and shift east across SNE through the early overnight
hours. Elevated dewpoints will keep lows warmer than Sunday night,
in the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday through Next Weekend
Very quiet forecast Tuesday through next weekend as a large area of
high pressure builds over the east CONUS and becomes quasi-
stationary. Persistent anti-cyclonic flow around this surface high
will support a south/southwest flow region into the Northeast that
will allow temperatures to climb up to 10 degrees above normal (low
to mid 80s) by the end of the work week. Air mass remains dry during
this time period so expect more sun than clouds and very low chances
for precipitation. Temperatures trend from highs/lows in the mid
70s/low 50s respectively on Tuesday to mid-upper 80s/low 60s by
Friday. While temperatures will be above normal at the end of the
week, it doens't look any of our climate sites will be in position
to break any daily records.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today and Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. A period of BKN cigs 6-10k ft developing this afternoon
into this evening, with a few shwoers possible in the interior.
Patchy late night fog possible in the CT valley. W-SW wind 10-20
kt today, diminishing tonight.
Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR. NW wind 8-15 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Monday night...High confidence.
W-NW winds continue through tonight. Marginal SCA wind gusts
over the northern waters tonight. Monday winds become W-SW
10-20 kt. Seas below SCA thresholds tonight through Monday
night.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/RM
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...KJC/RM
MARINE...BW/RM
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 1:31 AM EDT----------------
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