PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 1:48 PM EDT041
FXUS61 KPBZ 111748
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the
weekend with high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry with above average afternoon highs today.
- Lows just a bit above seasonal norms.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure centered across the Northeast continues the
dry conditions with above average temperatures. Outside the highest
terrain, afternoon highs will push into the 80s for most of the area
with probabilities for >85F peaking at 70-90% for southeast Ohio and
the urban areas. A light southeast gradient wind remains with a weak
pressure gradient.
Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s, roughly five
degrees warmer than Tuesday night's lows, with light south to
southeast wind. Some patchy river valley fog is possible again
late tonight but probabilities are a bit lower and, unlike this
morning, should see it remain confined to the valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues with increasing cloud coverage the only
impact from remnants of Francine.
- Temperatures still above normal.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence forecast continues to close out the week as ensemble
clusters exhibit little deviation from the mean. High pressure
remains dominant as Francine's remnants will slowly push north but
be blocked off to our south and west as strong upper level ridging
builds across the Great Lakes region. The only expected impact for
our area is going to be an increase in high level clouds for the
second half of Thursday into Friday as ensembles show an expansive
cirrus shield covering a large portion of the eastern CONUS. Most
likely timing of the cloud coverage arrival is late enough Thursday
to still allow temperatures to climb to the mid 80s (60-80% chance
of >85F south and west of Pittsburgh) coincident with 24 hour height
rises of 1-3 dam and increasing thicknesses. Highs Friday look to be
held a couple degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the
weekend.
- Francine's remnants will likely linger south and west of the area.
- Low probability rain chances by mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble have continued the trend of ridging holding strong across
the northeast providing increased confidence in dry conditions
extending through the weekend into early next week as the remnants
of Francine meander over the Mississippi Valley. The only
uncertainty stems from low pressure riding the top of the ridge way
off to our north which offers little to no impact locally. In
response, have kept the PoP mention out until late in the day on
Monday.
Confidence decreases after Monday with models hinting at low
pressure development off the Carolinas by Tuesday. This could
increase rain potential for the middle of next week, though
reasonable scenarios still exist for dry weather continuing for our
area. Troughing is expected to move into the West Coast which
amplifies the pattern and further strengthens the ridging locally,
but ensemble clusters exhibit quite a bit of uncertainty with timing
and strength at this point.
Temperatures remain above-average into early next week, with highs
running 5-10 degrees above the norm (low/mid 80s for most).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR with light wind is expected areawide through the TAF period
as high pressure persists.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the week under the
influence of high pressure. The exception will be low-
probability river valley fog each morning.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...Rackley/MLB
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 1:48 PM EDT---------------
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