JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 11:40 PM EDT425
FXUS63 KJKL 120340 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather lasts into Thursday.
- A potential for rain will arrive from the southwest late
Thursday and Thursday night. This is due to the weakening
remnants of Hurricane Francine moving north and lingering to
our west.
- A possibility of rain then lasts much of the time through
the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows the western portion of high pressure to
our east holding on over much of Kentucky as the low pressure
associated with Hurricane Francine is working this way from the
southwest. The leading edge of the high clouds from the tropical
system are just now getting into eastern Kentucky while winds
remain light, generally from the east. Temperatures currently vary
from the the mid to upper 60s in the valleys to around 80 on the
ridges and in the more open terrain of the southwest. Meanwhile,
dewpoints range from the upper 40s and lower 50s northeast to the
mid and upper 50s in the southwest. Expect another ridge to valley
temperature difference through the night but mitigated late by
the arriving high clouds. Likewise, the clouds should limit the
late night fog development to just perhaps the Big Sandy
tributaries. Have updated the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 446 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
Our flow aloft is weak and largely featureless late today.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a large area of high pressure off the
New England coast is continuing to supply relatively dry air to
the area. However, there is a dew point gradient, with the driest
air in our northeast counties giving way to moisture slowly making
its way in from the southwest. The biggest feature on the scene in
the eastern CONUS is Hurricane Francis off the Louisiana coast
late today. It's not having any meaningful influence on our area
at present, but as it moves inland and weakens, we will be on the
fringe of its effects. Latest model runs suggest what's left of it
will be in the vicinity of northeast AR and West TN by dawn on
Friday. A few high clouds from its upper level outflow are likely
already visible in our southern counties. The clouds will thicken
and lower with time from south to north over eastern KY. Models
are continuing to back off on precip potential. A blend of the
most recent runs has an initial band of dissipating precip moving
north northeast over the area from late Thursday into Thursday
night. Highest POPs through Thursday night with this are likely
category over the Cumberland drainage basin, tapering to a slight
chance near the WV border. Have foregone thunder through Thursday
night in this issuance. Any instability with the precip looks
elevated, with forecast soundings suggesting convective currents
struggling to make it to the -20C level.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 520 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
The long term starts out with the remnants of Francine positioned
over the middle Mississippi River Valley, while the center of an
upper level ridge is seen over the Great Lakes. Further west,
troughing resides west of the Rockies, with an embedded low near
the Montana/Saskatchewan border. This low and the associated
through will curl off to the northeast this weekend, with the
remnants of Francine and the Great Lakes ridge getting shoved
eastward through this weekend. Model trends continue to show
higher PoPs (50-60%) concentrating generally along and west of
I-75, as deeper moisture has a harder time sustaining further east
of this boundary, given the downsloped low level flow remaining
in place across the rest of the eastern Kentucky. Early next week,
a broad closed low is maintained over the southeastern CONUS,
with a potential embedded stronger vorticity lobe moving in from
the Carolina Coast. Should this pan out, this feature would result
in some needed rainfall across northeastern Kentucky. PoPs for
now only peak in 20-30% chance range, as there still remains
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution here.
Temperatures will average near seasonal normals through the
period, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts will hold through the
period. High ceilings, developing from south to north during the
period, will likely mitigate even the river valley fog late
tonight for all locations but perhaps briefly in the Big Sandy
region.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 11:40 PM EDT---------------
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