JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 5:20 PM EDT648
FXUS63 KJKL 112120
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather lasts into Thursday.
- A potential for rain will arrive from the southwest late
Thursday and Thursday night. This is due to the weakening
remnants of Hurricane Francine moving north and lingering to
our west.
- A possibility of rain then lasts much of the time through
the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 446 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
Our flow aloft is weak and largely featureless late today.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a large area of high pressure off the
New England coast is continuing to supply relatively dry air to
the area. However, there is a dew point gradient, with the driest
air in our northeast counties giving way to moisture slowly making
its way in from the southwest. The biggest feature on the scene in
the eastern CONUS is Hurricane Francis off the Louisiana coast
late today. It's not having any meaningful influence on our area
at present, but as it moves inland and weakens, we will be on the
fringe of its effects. Latest model runs suggest what's left of it
will be in the vicinity of northeast AR and West TN by dawn on
Friday. A few high clouds from its upper level outflow are likely
already visible in our southern counties. The clouds will thicken
and lower with time from south to north over eastern KY. Models
are continuing to back off on precip potential. A blend of the
most recent runs has an initial band of dissipating precip moving
north northeast over the area from late Thursday into Thursday
night. Highest POPs through Thursday night with this are likely
category over the Cumberland drainage basin, tapering to a slight
chance near the WV border. Have foregone thunder through Thursday
night in this issuance. Any instability with the precip looks
elevated, with forecast soundings suggesting convective currents
struggling to make it to the -20C level.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 520 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
The long term starts out with the remnants of Francine positioned
over the middle Mississippi River Valley, while the center of an
upper level ridge is seen over the Great Lakes. Further west,
troughing resides west of the Rockies, with an embedded low near
the Montana/Saskatchewan border. This low and the associated
through will curl off to the northeast this weekend, with the
remnants of Francine and the Great Lakes ridge getting shoved
eastward through this weekend. Model trends continue to show
higher PoPs (50-60%) concentrating generally along and west of
I-75, as deeper moisture has a harder time sustaining further east
of this boundary, given the downsloped low level flow remaining
in place across the rest of the eastern Kentucky. Early next week,
a broad closed low is maintained over the southeastern CONUS,
with a potential embedded stronger vorticity lobe moving in from
the Carolina Coast. Should this pan out, this feature would result
in some needed rainfall across northeastern Kentucky. PoPs for
now only peak in 20-30% chance range, as there still remains
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution here.
Temperatures will average near seasonal normals through the
period, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the
period. Although, high ceilings will be developing from south to
north during the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 5:20 PM EDT---------------
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