PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 11:46 AM CDT701
FXUS63 KPAH 121646
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1146 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The tropical remnants of Francine will bring much needed
rainfall late today into the weekend. 1 to 3 inches of rain is
forecast on average, with locally higher 3 to 4 inch amounts
possible. Winds/gusts 15-30 mph are also possible.
- 80s today will be replaced with more humid 70s under the
clouds and rains Friday into the weekend. We return to 80s
next work week as rain chances gradually yield to drier
conditions under higher pressure as the work week wears on.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
As the remnants of Francine lift and approach our area, we'll
see humidity spike and rain spread in/over the region from south
to north. Said rain chances will begin this afternoon and
continue more or less thru the weekend into early next week
even. The best pop and qpf look to be in the tonight-Friday time
frame, when the center of the low is nearest. The models still
wobble its center to our south, so the thunder/severe threat is
minimized here with better chances for that remaining to the
south. That said, WPC outlooks a MRGNL to SLGT risk thru this
time range for excessive rainfall. We're still calling for 1-3"
rainfall on average, spread out into the weekend. Some
localized higher 3-4" amounts are not out of the question, but
should not pose any more than a localized impact given our
drought conditions and its spread over time; short duration FFG
is practically that high. Winds will pick up as the gradient
tightens, with 15-30 mph sustained/gusts a good bet through
Friday.
We should have enough dry/warmth today for temps to reach into
the 80s again. Then with the tropical clouds/rain, we get more
humid 70s into the weekend. As Francine drifts to the east and
becomes enveloped with another system on the SE Coast early
next week, we get into a teleconnected blocking pattern that
should dry and warm us back into the 80s and 60s for the bulk of
next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Clouds will thicken through the afternoon as the remnants of
Tropical Depression Francine move closer to the region from the
south. Conditions will remain VFR as it will take some time to
reach saturation in the column. East winds near 10 kts with a
few gusts around 16-17 kts are expected.
Between 01-06z tonight, SHRA will spread from north to south
across all terminals when the steadiest pcpn is progged. The
risk for TSRA still remains extremely low to include any TAF
mention. The main concern however will be MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsby reductions into Friday morning. An increase in the pressure
gradient will also mean more breezy conditions. East winds
between 10-16 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts are possible.
Lingering SHRA remains possible mainly at KPAH/KCGI after 13z
while drier conditions are expected across the northern
terminals. Towards the end of the TAF period, the risk for TSRA
does begin to increase, especially across western Kentucky. East
winds around 10 kts with gusts around 20 kts are possible.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 11:46 AM CDT---------------
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