PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 2:32 AM EDT860
FXUS61 KPBZ 100632
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and ridging aloft will keep dry weather and above
average temperatures in the forecast this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather, plentiful sunshine, and warming temperatures
continue.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A quiet overnight continues. Despite height rises, mostly clear
skies, low dew points, and diminishing winds will allow for
radiational cooling this morning, dropping morning lows into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. This cooling will allow for some patchy
river valley fog development near dawn.
Surface high pressure becomes centered over the Ohio Valley
today as NE CONUS troughing pulls east and ridging builds over
the Great Lakes. This will result in continued warming, with
high temperatures around five degrees warmer than Monday and
just above the climatological average. Otherwise, dry weather
continues.
Tuesday night should prove similar to Monday night, save for a
couple degrees warmer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions and warming continue Wednesday and Thursday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The monotony of high pressure remains unwavering through midweek
as surface high pressure slowly slides east and broad upper
ridging holds steadfast. Continued sunshine and warm advection
will push much of the area into the mid/upper 80s on Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. Overnight lows remain in the 50s to
near 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures into next
weekend.
- Tropical Storm Francine will need to be monitored for rain
potential in the coming days.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles generally hold eastern ridging through Friday with
some question thereafter in regards to the remnants of Francine.
The last several GEFS/EPS cycles have down in weekend PoP as the
dominant scenario keeps stronger ridging in place and rain
farther southwest of our area. Still, we are early yet in storm
formation and would suspect global model confidence will
increase in the next 24 hours. It remains a possibility for some
rain late Friday through the weekend as Francine nears the area,
and have kept Fri-Sun grids close to NBM probs.
Considerable uncertainty remains for early next week, depending
on storm and pattern evolution. Therefore, low-end PoPs
continue through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions generally prevail throughout the TAF period as
high pressure dominates the forecast. Dependent on the degree
of clearing between waves of clouds around FKL/DUJ early this
morning, there is potential (30-50%) for enough radiational
cooling to promote river valley fog and drop visibilities below
3 miles. Duration would likely be short and limited to 09z-12z
before dissipating.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the next week under the
influence of high pressure, with low probabilities of river
valley fog each morning.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 2:32 AM EDT---------------
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