IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 1:14 PM EDT489
FXUS63 KIWX 071714
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
114 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few lake effect showers this morning over far northwest
Indiana.
- Much cooler today followed by a significant warmup with highs
through next week well into the 80s.
- Drought conditions expected to increase with no rain expected
through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Dry entrainment through swrn flank of upper low over centered
near Alpena hindering lake shower development early this
morning. This is further born out with lack of upstream cloud
generation within otherwise favorable ern lake positioned
convergence zone. As such have cut back hard on prior pops far
northwest through today. Otherwise vigorous cold advection early
will taper late.
Upper low lifts out rapidly through QB Sun with quick moderation
to lingering low level thermal trough expected, especially in
the aftn and will hold close to prior highs given robust warm
advection seen in models. This will successively build further
each day through Thu as robust low level thermal ridge develops
across the wrn lakes beneath developing rex block aloft. Thus
ensuring a return of very dry and very warm weather through
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
Lake effect showers have remained west of KSBN with an outside
chance for a stray shower as the flow becomes more NW. Will
leave out as no real impact would be expected if it does occur.
Otherwise, cloud cover should slowly diminish tonight into
Sunday as flow begins to weaken, shift and inversion heights
lower.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 1:14 PM EDT---------------
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