ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 9:34 AM EDT812
FXUS61 KILN 091334
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
934 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place
across the region today. We will continue to see some smoke
aloft drift across the area today, leading to some filtered
sunshine at times. Highs today will be in the 75 to 80 degree
range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Conditions will be nearly ideal for radiational cooling tonight
as the lower atmosphere decouples and winds become calm. Clear
skies will persist. Have adjusted low temperatures down a few
degrees in the valleys due to gravity flows.
Continued effects of surface high pressure and the mid-level
ridge will bring warm and dry conditions Tuesday. HRRR
integrated smoke product shows elevated smoke persisting,
especially across the Tri-State Region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The center of the surface ridge will translate east Tuesday night
into Wednesday, while a mid level ridge axis begins to develop/take
shape across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Dry weather will
persist along with an uptick in temperatures. After cool lows in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s, highs on Tuesday will warm into the
lower to mid 80s.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, mid level ridging will strengthen
across the region. As a response, temperatures will continue to
warm. After lows in the 50s, highs on Wednesday will range between
85 and 90 degrees.
As we head towards the end of the work week, our focus begins to
shift to tropical activity along the western Gulf Coast. Potential
Tropical Cyclone 6, which is forecast to eventually become a
hurricane (Francine), will merge with weak mid level energy,
transitioning into a mid level closed low as it drifts northward
from the lower Mississippi River Valley to the lower Ohio River
Valley. This process will increase clouds over our area, and will
eventually bring a chance for pcpn Thursday night into Friday, with
the highest chances poised for our far southwest zones closer to the
low. Thus, a chance of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
eventually be possible. Clouds and the threat for some rain will
bring high temperatures back down into the 70s and lower 80s,
although overnight lows will warm into the 60s.
For the upcoming weekend, uncertainty remains on how much the mid
level closed low will move north and or east while mid level ridging
remains strong to our north and northeast (Rex blocking pattern).
Thus, will only keep low chances for showers/few thunderstorms,
along with partly cloudy skies. It will remain somewhat humid with
highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light
winds through the TAF period. Guidance continues to show a hazy
and diffuse elevated smoke layer persisting... especially over
the western sites of DAY, CVG, and LUK. Scattered fair weather
cumulus clouds may return for CVG's extended TAF on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 9:34 AM EDT---------------
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