CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 3:28 PM EDT113
FXUS61 KCLE 101928
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over West Virginia will move to New
England and remain nearly stationary into the weekend. Low
pressure from a tropical system will move into the mid
Mississippi Valley by the weekend and weaken.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet late summer weather is expected this period as high pressure
from the surface to aloft remains in control over the area.
Mostly clear skies can be expected but a short wave moving east
across the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday may spread some
clouds into northwest PA. Surface temperatures will warm a few
degrees from this afternoon highs as 850 mb temperatures
increase a few degrees. A weak surface pressure gradient will
allow a lake breeze to develop Wednesday which will keep the
northern half of the lakeshore counties a bit cooler. Inland
locations will warm into the 80s. Overnight lows will cool into
the lower to mid 50s except near 60 along the lakeshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure situated over New England and the East Coast
will still be the main driving factor for the weather in the short
term resulting in a fairly quiet couple of days. Surface winds will
shift out of the east-southeast along with an increase cloud cover
as remnants of Francine move northward into the Tennessee Valley.
Though with the mid-levels being fairly dry, moisture advection will
be limited and PoP chances will remain low. Temperatures should
remain a few degrees above normal, in the mid to low 80s for highs
with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much to talk of in the long term. Flow should be quiet with an
upper level ridge in place over the NE CONUS and accompanying large
high pressure at the surface. Only chance for precipitation will be
with Francine Saturday and Sunday and that will be limited as it
moves north into a unfavorable environment. Even then, the potential
is low due to aforementioned conditions with the high pressure and
lack of low-level moisture. Temperatures will remain consistent
throughout the period with the expected cloud cover, highs will be
in the low to mid 80s. &&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure will remain in control over the region through the
TAF period and provide mostly clear skies and light winds. VFR
conditions will prevail with the only possible exception being
early morning ground fog over interior northeast Ohio and
northwest PA from perhaps 10-12 UTC. A light lake breeze at CLE
and ERI will subside before sunset and a land breeze/drainage
wind will develop by midnight out of the south and remain light.
A weak lake breeze will develop on Wednesday afternoon at CLE
and ERI.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will make for a quiet week across Lake Erie. Winds
will generally be out of the east-southeast and be fairly light at 5
to 10kts. As the weekend approaches, flow will start to increase
across the lake and winds will be 10 to 15 knots with waves 1 to 3
feet, mainly in the western basin, staying below headline
criteria.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Kennedy
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 3:28 PM EDT---------------
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