JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 3:50 AM EDT055
FXUS63 KJKL 100750
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more night of near-record low temperatures, then warmer
through mid-week.
- The next opportunity for rain is not until late Thursday through
next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
High pressure remains in control for the duration of the short-term
period through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
gradually trend upward, peaking for the week Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. High-level thin cirrus
associated with Francine will begin to push north later today and
persist into Wednesday, but will only gradually thicken with time
from south to north. Expect a continued significant ridge-valley
split in temperatures tonight, with upper 50s on the ridges and mid
to upper 40s in the coldest valley locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
The remnants of tropical cyclone Francine will be our primary
weather maker in the extended portion of the forecast, as she
moves slowly northward after landfall and into the central
Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley toward the end of
the week. The good news is, based on the latest model data and a
few other factors, the bulk of rainfall, especially heavier rain,
should remain to our west in central and western Kentucky. As
Francine approaches, it looks like she'll stall out nearby.
However, with the TC to our west, eastern Kentucky should remain
in a predominantly southeast or east southeast flow regime, which
would lead to downslope warming. Downslope flow would lead to
drying along the western slopes of our higher eastern terrain, and
most of the area west of there. Even with Francine expected to
stall nearby, the downslope flow should dry things out enough to
effectively reduce precipitation probabilities across our area
quite a bit. In fact, due to the expected downslope drying,
decided to go five to fifteen points lower than surrounding
offices with PoPs throughout the extended. We will still get some
good, wetting rains, but it shouldn't be as heavy or widespread as
what our neighbors receive since we will most certainly have
drier air in place at lower levels.
With widespread cloud cover and persistent rain anticipated,
temperatures should be a few degrees below normal through the
period. Daytime highs should average between the upper 70s and
lower 80s around the area, with nightly lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
Due to Francine's very slow movement, rain chances will most
likely persist across the area through the weekend and into the
first of next week. Lightning with any storms and locally heavy
rainfall will be the hazards to watch for as Francine moves
through.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
High pressure continues to produce clear skies, light winds, and
mostly VFR conditions throughout the entire period. The only
exception will be a period through around ~14z, when MVFR to IFR
or locally lower reductions in fog are prevalent within the
deeper river valleys and along some of the larger creeks and area
lakes. However, this fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 3:50 AM EDT---------------
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