ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 9:57 PM EDT070
FXUS61 KILN 090157
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Northwest flow aloft with a large area of surface high pressure
over the Ohio Valley. Continue to observe a fair amount of
smoke aloft across the area which will likely continue to drift
southeast overnight into Monday.
Otherwise, with high pressure centered over the area, skies will
be mostly clear with light winds. Expect another cool night with
lows generally in the lower to middle 40s, although a few upper
30s will be possible in outlying typically colder areas. Also,
some areas of river valley fog will be possible late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The surface high will remain centered over the Ohio Valley
Monday through Monday night. The HRRR smoke model is showing
the potential for some additional smoke aloft to drop down
across the area on Monday so this could lead to some filtered
sunshine at times during the day. Otherwise, expect mostly
clear skies to prevail. Temperatures will continue to moderate
with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Monday
night will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A prolonged period of dry weather will continue through the early
part of the long term as high pressure settles slowly across the
Eastern CONUS. There will be a chance for some relief from the
drought conditions starting Friday with the possibility of
increasing moisture and forcing associated with a developing
tropical system over the Western Gulf. Right now the model blend
suggests chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern
locations from Friday through Sunday. Later model runs will better
pinpoint the potential effects from this system that is forming over
waters east of Texas.
High temperatures begin in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday, increasing
to around 90 Wednesday and Thursday in the warm circulation around
the high pressure. A retreat due to possible clouds and precip is
indicated for Friday through Sunday, when highs are forecast to
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain in control of the weather
through the period. This will lead to dry weather, mostly clear
skies, and light winds. Some fog development will be possible
late tonight - mainly in the river valleys. Have MVFR to IFR
vsby restrictions at KLUK valley location late tonight into
early Monday morning. Fog will burn off quickly Monday morning
with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds and continued high
level clouds.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 9:57 PM EDT---------------
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