JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 3:32 PM EDT396
FXUS63 KJKL 071932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
332 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions are expected through the remainder of
this weekend.
- Record or near-record low temperatures are forecast for Sunday
and Monday mornings. This is followed by a gradual warm-up next
week.
- Other than chances for showers mainly before sunrise, the next
slight chance for rain does not arrive until late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Post frontal diurnal cu have developed more than anticipated, and
sky cover has been increased in the very near term. Will still
look for them to thin out with time today as mixing continues in
the drier air mass moving in.
UPDATE Issued at 924 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Morning obs are blended into the forecast, without any substantive
changes.
UPDATE Issued at 727 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Sent out an update to the text forecast removing any mention of
precipitation for the remainder of the morning along the Virginia
border. Otherwise, there are no substantive changes to the
forecast, with just minor tweaks to Sky grids for the next few
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
A deep upper low over the Great Lakes region has pushed a cold front
across eastern Kentucky overnight. Associated shower activity will
continue to move east and out of the area by sunrise or shortly
thereafter, with clearing skies through the remainder of the morning
as northerly surface flow and northwesterly flow aloft ushers in a
fall-like air mass over the region. This seasonably chilly and dry
air mass will then remain in place through the remainder of the
short term period. The only notable changes made to the gridded
forecast from the deterministic NBM was to lower dew point
temperatures by several degrees from late this morning through the
remainder of the short-term period (i.e., Sunday afternoon), and to
raise sustained winds slightly especially for this afternoon.
Record or near-record lows are forecast for tonight across the
region. Existing records at official climate stations for September
8th are 49 degrees at KJKL (Jackson Airport) and 45 degrees at KLOZ
(London Airport). Current forecast lows for Sunday morning are 47
degrees at KJKL and 43 degrees at KLOZ, respectively. Meanwhile,
afternoon highs both today and Sunday will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, which is in the range of 10 to 15 degrees below normal
for the first half of September.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Much of the forecast period will be characterized by surface high
pressure just off to the east and mid-level trough eventually
breaking down and ridging building in from the southeast. Much of the
work week will be dry, with PWATs running a few standard deviations
below normal for this time of year. The various ensembles systems
show a good signal (60-80 percent) for overnight lows below 50
degrees particularly Sunday night into Monday morning. Given the
good signal for mixing out dry air in the afternoons will allow
for some fall nights, with lows in the low to mid 40s for the
valleys and mid to upper 40s for ridges Monday night and less cool
as we go through the period.
Once we get toward mid-week high pressure stays in control, but
previously mentioned mid- and upper level ridging will allow highs
to creep back above normal (Normals for JKL 82 degrees and LOZ
83 degrees). These afternoon highs will peak Wednesday, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Then as we round out the week there
is more uncertainty on how the tropics unfold. NHC is tracking an
area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico near the
Yucatan Peninsula today. The ensembles and deterministic guidance
are showing this will track northward into the Gulf Coast next
week and track toward the Ohio Valley late next week into next
weekend. The NBM is starting to throw in some slight chances of
rain (around 15-20 percent) by Thursday night into Friday and this
is likely a result of uncertainty related to this low pressure.
Given this will keep it rolling for now until more certainty
develops with this system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2024
Aside from localized IFR or worse conditions in late night/early
morning valley fog, VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The fog is not expected to affect TAF sites. Northwest to
north winds gusting around 15 kts will diminish this evening and
then remain light for the remainder of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 7, 3:32 PM EDT---------------
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