BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 7:10 PM EDT244
FXUS61 KBOX 312310
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
710 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two later tonight into
Sunday, but not expecting a washout. It will be quite humid
Sunday ahead of this cold front. Dry and seasonable Monday
through late next week. Optimal radiational cooling conditions
will yield chilly morning lows for several days next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sunshine was more prevalent across the southeastern 1/3 of
southern New England this afternoon, with mostly cloudy
conditions farther west. Made some tweaks to temperatures based
on observed trends. Otherwise, still expecting dry weather
through sunset across most of our region.
A different story later this evening into tonight. More humid
air arrives ahead of an approaching cold front, especially after
midnight. Increasing risk for showers and a few thunderstorms
overnight. Model soundings showed tall, skinny CAPE and limited
shear. Thus, not thinking there will be widespread severe
weather tonight. May have to watch out for local downpours, but
we have been dry lately. We can handle some rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Humid Sunday with scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. Not a washout.
Lingering scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
or two will be possible Sunday morning. The big question
remains if there will be a second round during the afternoon.
Not expecting a cold front to move offshore until later Sunday
night, so it is possible. The dynamics are messy, and it's
difficult to pin down a window of time when it will be dry at a
given location. Still not expecting a washout, but there should
be at least a chance for some showers much of Sunday. The
greatest confidence is for the morning hours, with rainfall
chances ending rapidly from west to east with sunset.
The overall severe weather threat remains quite limited, given
poor mid level lapse rates and lack of strong synoptic scale
forcing. It's looking like a very localized wind threat at most.
Becoming drier Sunday night as a cold front finally moves
though.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points...
* Dry and cooler conditions set in all of next week with
especially cool mornings during the first half of the week.
* Next chance of unsettled weather comes around next weekend.
Details...
Not much to speak about in the way of precipitation chances for
the upcoming week as we get a little preview of Fall, at least
to start. High pressure takes hold on Monday, expanding over
the Great Lakes before shifting directly overhead by Wednesday
and lingering through Friday. This keeps clear skies and dry
weather in the forecast throughout. Looking at next weekend we
begin to see signs of unsettled weather returning as mid level
ridging begins to move east and a deep trough digs into the
Great Lakes.
Temperature-wise we'll be enjoying some below average
temperatures to start the week thanks to dry, northwest flow
around the high to our west. Despite the high at the surface,
lingering troughing overhead early in the week will give 850 mb
temps in the 5-7C range which results in high temperatures as
cool as the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, ideal radiational cooling
conditions overnight allow most locations (away from the coast)
to dip into the mid 40s both Monday and Tuesday nights. Beyond
that temperatures will steadily moderate each day as the trough
exits and a warmer airmass moves in.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
Ceilings should lower tonight to mainly MVFR-IFR conditions. A
round of scattered showers, and perhaps a rumble or two of
thunder are possible, mainly during the latter half of the
night. S winds 5-10 knots.
Sunday...Moderate Confidence.
MVFR-IFR ceilings early should improve to mainly MVFR/VFR
conditions by afternoon. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible at times, but likely more hit-or-
miss rather than a continuous rainfall. SSW 5-10 knots.
Sunday Night...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR, with areas IFR towards the Cape and islands early.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Prolonged period with a
risk for a shower or thunderstorm Sunday, but not raining this
entire time. Confidence not yet high enough to include TSRA in
the TAF.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Prolonged period with a
risk for a shower or thunderstorm Sunday, but not raining this
entire time. Confidence not yet high enough to include TSRA in
the TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Labor Day: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night through Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday Night...High Confidence.
A cold front slowly approaches the waters late Sunday, and
should cross the waters sometime Sunday night. Generally looking
at S winds of 10 to 15 knots today shifting to the W to NW by
late SUnday night. So while seas may become a bit choppy Sunday,
conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Labor Day through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 7:10 PM EDT----------------
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