PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:29 AM EDT335
FXUS61 KPBZ 031129
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through
much of the week. Precipitation chances return Friday and
Saturday with another passing cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cool and comfortable conditions today.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Touched up the sky grids for cirrus expected later today, and
for lingering valley fog mainly north and east of Pittsburgh.
The overall forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure builds east across the lower Great Lakes
today as northwest flow continues aloft. This will maintain
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions, with afternoon
temps reaching the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Dry and comfortable through Thursday night with gradually
warming temperatures.
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A weak upper ridge builds over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley regions Wednesday and Thursday as surface high pressure
shifts east of the area. This brings surface winds around to
more easterly or southeasterly which, in combination with height
rises due to the impending upper ridge, should help temperatures
begin to slowly warm back to above normal levels as highs climb
to near or above 80 degrees each afternoon and lows moderate
into the upper 50s to low 60s each night. Conditions remain dry
under the influence of high pressure, though cloud cover may
begin to overspread the area from the northwest Thursday night
in advance of an approaching upper trough that digs into the
upper Great Lakes to our northwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Threat for showers and possibly a thunderstorm returns Friday
and Saturday with a passing cold front.
- Dry conditions return Sunday/Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range guidance suggests a rather powerful upper low digging
into the upper Great Lakes Friday and Saturday, with a
downstream surface low subsequently deepening over southern
Ontario and lifting northward, dragging a cold front
southeastward towards the local area in its wake. We see shower
and thunderstorm chances begin to increase on Friday as deep-
layer southwest flow ahead of the cold front brings moisture
back into the area. However, at this time it appears the best
rain chances hold off until late Friday night into Saturday as
cold front itself pushes through the area.
The upper low drifts slowly eastward across the Great Lakes and
southern Ontario Sunday and Monday, shifting deep-layer flow to
westerly behind Saturday's cold front and ushering cooler and
drier air back into the Ohio Valley. There is a non-zero chance
that if enough boundary layer moisture lingers behind the front,
we could see lake-effect clouds and possibly some light showers
linger Saturday night into Sunday generally north of Pittsburgh.
Otherwise, below-normal temperatures and dry weather return the
second half of the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some valley steam fog is present mainly north and east of PIT,
mainly impacting FKL. This will lift between 13Z and 14Z, with
VFR conditions and light northeast to east wind expected through
the day under the influence of surface high pressure. Only some
cirrus are expected, on the outskirts of an inverted trough
poking into the Middle Ohio Valley.
The overnight hours will also be mainly VFR. Lingering cirrus
and slightly warmer overnight lows will likely reduce the
coverage of overnight valley steam fog.
.Outlook...
Late night/early morning river valley steam fog is possible
each morning with cool air temps over warm river water.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain VFR through Thursday. The
weather pattern becomes more active Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...CL
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 7:29 AM EDT---------------
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