PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 5:42 AM CDT465
FXUS63 KPAH 021042
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
542 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Canadian high pressure will bring pleasant weather to the
region today and Tuesday.
- A disturbance will pass through the Mid-South from Wednesday
through Friday, bringing a daily chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly during the heat of the day.
- Another cold front will sweep through the region on Friday,
bringing great autumn weather to the area next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Today through Tuesday night...A secondary cold front has swept
through the area this evening, and cooler and more comfortable
air is filtering into the region from north to south. As
Canadian high pressure settles southward over the eastern
CONUS, it's shaping up to be a couple of great early fall
weather days for Labor Day and Tuesday. High temperatures today
and Tuesday will reach the lower to middle 80s, with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most spots.
For those with boating plans today, gradient winds this
afternoon will pick up from the northeast as high as 10-15 mph
with gusts of 15-20 mph possible. This might create light
choppy waters on the larger lakes and waterways. While Tuesday
will be dry, mid- and upper-level cloud cover will thicken
through the daytime and evening hours ahead of our next
disturbance.
Wednesday through Friday night...Model guidance continues to be
in good agreement that rain and thunderstorm chances will return
for the latter half of the work week. A weak tropical
disturbance will move northeast towards the area from the
western Gulf of Mexico coast. There has been a trend over the
last 24 hours for a more suppressed and southerly path of this
system, which has led to a downtick in PoPs and rainfall
amounts. High temperatures during this time will remain in the
lower to middle 80s in most locations, with overnight low
temperatures falling into the lower to middle 60s.
As it stands, the best chances rain look to be during
the afternoon hours from Wednesday through Friday, with the
highest chances along the AR/TN borders. For parched areas
needing rain, the odds of widespread soaking rains look limited
at best. The latest NBM ensemble guidance gives any part of the
region a 30-50% chance of seeing 0.25" of rain or more from
Wednesday through Friday, and a less than 20% chance of
receiving over 1" of rain during this time. Friday afternoon and
evening, another cold front will sweep through the area,
bringing another cool and dry Canadian air mass for next
weekend. Low temperatures Friday night will dip into the middle
to upper 50s.
Saturday through Sunday night...Long-range ensemble guidance
remains in good agreement that a deep trough will set up shop
over the eastern CONUS during the 6-10 day window. This will
yield a prolonged period of below normal temperatures, but also
continued dry weather. Under plentiful sunshine, high
temperatures next weekend will reach the middle to upper 70s
with overnight lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024
The TAFs are VFR. Following the passage of a cold front, dry NE
flow will bring mainly clear skies through great majority of the
forecast period. Winds will be NE at 9-12 kts with gusts of
15-20 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds
will relax to 6-9 kts tonight under increasing high cirrus cloud
cover.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 5:42 AM CDT---------------
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