Author Topic: [Alert]CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 9:51 PM EDT  (Read 514 times)

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CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 9:51 PM EDT

215 
FXUS61 KCLE 030151
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
951 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently centered over the southern Great Lakes
will gradually slide east through Thursday. The next cold front
pushes through Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
While temperatures near Lake Erie are holding in the low 60s,
inland locations have dropped solidly into the 50s. As winds
continue to drop off overnight we will be well on our way to
forecast low temperatures in the 40s (except holding close to
50 near the lake).

Previous discussion...
Nice Canadian high pressure bringing a taste of early fall
weather through the near term. Expect ongoing cumulus to quickly
dissipate this evening. After some very patchy radiation/valley
fog late tonight into early Tuesday, expect a mainly sunny
Tuesday with fewer cumulus than today. Winds will go light and
variable tonight before coming up to 5-10 knots out of an
easterly direction during the day Tuesday. Lows tonight will get
into the 40s for most of the area, with the immediate lakeshore
and Cleveland area staying in the 50s. Afternoon temperatures
are only in the low to mid 60s over the higher terrain of PA
today, so it's not inconceivable that a few deeper valleys make
a run into the upper 30s tonight. However, with dew points well
into the 40s right now the confidence wasn't there to go quite
that chilly, so kept the sheltered valleys from interior
Northeast OH into Northwest PA in 40-44 degree range tonight.
Highs on Tuesday will gain about 5 degrees from today, ranging
from near or a bit better than 70 in PA and far northeastern OH
to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Lows Tuesday night will trend
a bit milder as well, generally from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure across the eastern United States will persist through
the middle of the week. The center of this system will be east of
the forecast area, allowing for return flow across the region.
Temperatures will increase with the warm air advection regime and
highs in the 80s should be expected. The lack of moisture across the
region, along with the lack of any synoptic forcing mechanism, will
prohibit any rain on Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern will significantly change across the region for Friday
and into the weekend as an upper trough will dig into the Great
Lakes region and support a low pressure system. The system and
evolution of the upper trough is slower than previous forecast
cycles and the best chance for rain is likely now not until Friday
night into Saturday with the main cold front. Behind the system, the
upper trough and cold air advection will remain across the region
and allow for some additional showers with some lake enhancement as
850 temperatures dip to the 3 to 5 C range. High pressure will build
from the southwest for Sunday into Monday and backing flow should
shut off any lake enhancement and the forecast will trend to dry.
Temperatures will be back to below normal for the weekend and it is
likely that high temperatures will stay below 70 degrees on Saturday
and Sunday behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Can not
rule out patchy mist in some cooler valley locations late
tonight into early Tuesday morning but should be pretty limited
and not expected to impact any TAF sites. Cumulus clouds are
already decreasing and will be minimal on Tuesday. Northerly
wind gusts will decrease in the next hour with most terminals
seeing winds of 5 knots or less overnight. Land breezes with
southeast winds are expected at CLE/ERI. Winds on Tuesday will
be 5-10 knots out of the east except shifting to northeast off
Lake Erie.

Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday. Non-VFR will be
possible in showers FRiday.

&&

.MARINE...
Somewhat unpleasant marine conditions will remain across the lake
tonight into Tuesday with north to northeast flow. While winds will
generally remain below 15 kts over the next 36 hours, this onshore
flow may generate some 1 to 3 ft waves that could allow for some
sub par recreational marine conditions, but not enough to merit
any headlines. High pressure over the region will move to the
east on Tuesday night flow will back across the lake to the
southeast. Offshore flow will allow for more friendly marine
weather conditions but there could be a window for a modified
lake breeze on Wednesday or Thursday. A low pressure system will
move into the region for Friday into the weekend. A cold front
will cross the lake Friday evening and north to northwest flow
will remain through the weekend. Increasing flow behind the low
pressure system will present an opportunity for small craft
advisory level winds and waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...KEC/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Sefcovic

Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 9:51 PM EDT

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