IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:34 AM EDT745
FXUS63 KIWX 311034
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
634 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms ending today
- Cooler and less humid through Labor Day
- Warmer & dry Wednesday and Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Numerous showers and scattered storms continued to spread over the
area early this morning. Strong to severe storms are no longer
expected as the airmass has really been worked over (stabilized);
shear is lacking and most unstable CAPE values were < 500 J/Kg
according to the SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values
were still quite highs (1.7 to 1.9") so heavy downpours will
continue the rest of the night until around daybreak. Rain
rates were quite high, but the activity was moving fast enough
that flooding is not expected. Cooler and drier air will slowly
spread into the area from the northwest behind the front and
help to eventually bring an end to the showers and storms later
today.
A large upper low over Hudson Bay will bring a surge of chilly
air early this coming week. This system will bring pleasant
weather Labor Day and Tuesday with lows dipping into the 40s
Monday night. Upper level ridging will return with much warmer
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a very uncertain
period late this upcoming week. For now, kept the model blend
rain chances Thursday night and Friday, but confidence in any
solution is very low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Low level front will continue to sag southward this morning as
sheared vorticity maximum tracks across the Ohio Valley. A very
sharp moisture gradient accompanies this baroclinic zone. While
greater coverage of showers should remain southeast of KFWA this
morning, slow moving nature of low level moisture gradient could
provide just enough weak elevated instability for an isolated
shower at KFWA through mid morning. A brief period of cigs
between 1500-2500 feet is possible at KFWA over next few hours,
but otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail this period. A
broad mid/upper level trough working across the Great Lakes
tonight will be accompanied by another strong low/mid level
front that could bring some patchy mid cloud to the area, but
mostly clear skies are expected tonight into Monday with deep
layer dry air advection.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 6:34 AM EDT---------------
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