LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 1:56 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...450
FXUS63 KLMK 030556
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
156 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cooler temperatures, compared to the recent heat wave, expected
this week. A reinforcing shot of still cooler conditions possible
this weekend.
* Occasional scattered showers possible mid-late week, especially
Thursday into Friday, though the chances of widespread heavy rain
are low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
High pressure over the Great Lakes will send dry air our way under
mostly clear skies tonight. A northeast breeze around 5 to 10 mph
will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions from being
realized, but sunrise temperatures should still mostly be in the
lower and middle 50s, with about a 40% chance of upper 40s from
rural areas of southern Indiana through the Blue Grass. Will include
some sub-50 degree temperatures in the forecast grids in the usual
sheltered cool spots.
On Tuesday the center of the high will advance to upstate New York,
continuing to provide us with dry low level air on ENE breezes.
Cirrus over the southern Plains today will flow northeastward into
our skies tomorrow, but filtered early September sunshine and
similar thicknesses to what was in the region on Monday should still
be able to pull afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s and lower
80s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Temperatures will begin to warm up and clouds will be on the
increase as we work through the midpoint of the work week. Sfc high
pressure that brought the cooler and drier weather conditions to
start the week will work eastward towards New England Wednesday and
Thursday. This will shift the sfc winds more out of the south-
southeast allowing temperatures to warm back around seasonal normals
into the mid to upper 80s for highs and low 60s for lows.
An inverted sfc trough is still expected to set up over the OH and
TN River Valleys on Wednesday. With dry air remaining in the lower-
levels, the most this feature will do is keep us mostly cloudy
during the day Wednesday. A weak upper disturbance will work out of
the Lower Mississippi Valley and slowly eastward across the Deep
South Wednesday night through the day Thursday. With continued dry
air over the region, we will see very little impact from this
feature. At this time, there are low end (10-20 percent POPs) right
along the KY/TN border for Thursday afternoon.
Our best chance for any precipitation in the long term appears to be
on Friday as an upper-level trough works into the Upper Midwest from
Canada and pushes a sfc cold front into the Ohio Valley on Friday.
Models bring the system into the CWA Friday afternoon and evening.
This will create scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder but the overall system lacks instability with little to no
shear.
Cold front is expected to push out of the CWA sometime Saturday
morning with cooler drier air advecting in behind it. Can't
completely rule out a few lingering isolated showers along and east
if the I-75 corridor Saturday morning but any activity looks to be
short lived as the drier air overtakes the entire area by Saturday
afternoon. Overall the forecast for the weekend looks dry and cool
with highs in the low/mid 70s and overnight lows Sunday and Monday
morning dropping into the mid/upper 40s making it feel very fall-
like for early September.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Dry and VFR through this forecast as high pressure centered to our
north controls our region as well. Looking for a steady NE to ENE
wind today with SCT high clouds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 1:56 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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