ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 8:52 PM EDT293
FXUS61 KILN 010052
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
852 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead
of a slow moving cold front. Drier conditions will filter into
the region overnight into Sunday. High pressure will build
across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering
dry and seasonably mild conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Although convection has already worked its way through most of
the southern third of the ILN forecast area today, the area
remains moist and unstable, with high boundary-layer theta-e in
place. Although one boundary did pass southward through the
majority of the area earlier today (shifting winds to the NW)
the main surface theta-e gradient remains to the north, and will
only slowly work its way southward. In advance of this
boundary, particularly over the southern sections of the
forecast area, MLCAPE values remain at about 1000 J/kg. This
will support occasional showers and storms through the next
several hours at least. With CAPE values reduced from earlier
today, and some weak boundary layer inhibition noted on SPC
mesoanalysis plots, severe weather appears unlikely.
Previous discussion >
Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. A lead
shortwave to track east thru the region - which will allow a
sfc cold front that is pushing into western Ohio - to sag slowly
southeast and weaken as into pushes into the Ohio Valley this
evening.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage in moderately unstable
airmass ahead of this front, with the best coverage south of
the I-71 corridor. PWATs around 2 inches will be observed ahead
of this front. Forcing and saturated nature of the profile,
along with moderate instby and weak deep-layer shear (0-6KM
effective shear around 20kts), will be enough to promote the
development of numerous thunderstorms over the southeast.
DCAPE values are marginally favorable for the potential for
strong winds over South Central Ohio and Northeast KY into
early evening. Given the very moist environment - heavy down
pours and localized flooding will be possible.
Storm activity will decrease in coverage and intensity this
evening. Drier conditions to filter in from the northwest
overnight in the wake of the front. Expect stratus/cloud cover
to develop in the post frontal environment.
Low temperatures overnight to range from the upper 50s
northwest to the upper 60s southeast.
Northwest mid and upper level flow with surface high pressure
building into the Great Lakes Sunday night. Skies will become
mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from
southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Skies will
improve from north to south early Sunday. A secondary front
will move in from the north during the afternoon, offering a
chance of a few showers across the north-northeast counties.
Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s
south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cool, dry surface high will build into the middle Ohio Valley
Monday and will continue to provide dry conditions and low relative
humidity through mid-week.
The surface high will push off to the east Thursday which will allow
a bit of return flow. Some guidance has some isentropic lift by late
Thursday with a chance of showers. For Friday, another mid-level
trough brings a cold front into the region with storms along and
ahead of it. Another dry high pressure will likely follow the front
heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few light showers are still possible at the TAF sites through
02Z, but after that, dry conditions are expected.
MVFR visibilities are likely at all of the TAF sites overnight,
and some periods of MVFR ceilings are also possible -- though
more likely at KILN/KLCK/KCMH.
Tomorrow, northwest winds of 8-12 knots are expected, with VFR
clouds. There is a very slight chance of a shower at the Dayton
and Columbus airports in the afternoon and evening, but the
chances are too low to include in the TAFs.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hatzos
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 8:52 PM EDT---------------
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