IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:39 AM EDT299
FXUS63 KIWX 310739
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
339 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms ending today
- Cooler and less humid through Labor Day
- Warmer & dry Wednesday and Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Numerous showers and scattered storms continued to spread over the
area early this morning. Strong to severe storms are no longer
expected as the airmass has really been worked over (stabilized);
shear is lacking and most unstable CAPE values were < 500 J/Kg
according to the SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values
were still quite highs (1.7 to 1.9") so heavy downpours will
continue the rest of the night until around daybreak. Rain
rates were quite high, but the activity was moving fast enough
that flooding is not expected. Cooler and drier air will slowly
spread into the area from the northwest behind the front and
help to eventually bring an end to the showers and storms later
today.
A large upper low over Hudson Bay will bring a surge of chilly
air early this coming week. This system will bring pleasant
weather Labor Day and Tuesday with lows dipping into the 40s
Monday night. Upper level ridging will return with much warmer
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a very uncertain
period late this upcoming week. For now, kept the model blend
rain chances Thursday night and Friday, but confidence in any
solution is very low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
A low level cold frontal boundary will be slow to sag southeast
overnight in highly sheared upper flow. Frontogenesis and
forcing from these sheared vorticity maximum will allow for
scattered showers to continue in KFWA vicinity. There could be
enough lingering weak elevated instability for isolated thunder
overnight at KFWA, but greater thunder probabilities should
remain south of the terminal. Conditions will dry out this
afternoon at KFWA with VFR conditions expected through remainder
of the period. It is possible overnight that some brief cigs
below 2000 feet may affect KFWA before drier air builds in from
the northwest.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:39 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
