IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 12:27 PM EDT229
FXUS63 KIND 011627
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1227 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today with some gusty winds
- Cooler than normal weather Monday through Wednesday
- Rain chances return Thursday into Friday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
- Sunny and warm
Surface analysis this morning shows strong high pressure over the
Dakotas. A surface trough was found stretching southern Ontario
across southern MI to Northern IL. Clear skies were found across
most of Central Indiana as well as points upstream across the upper
mid west. Winds were from the northwest and dew points were in the
lower 60s. Aloft strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, while
a trough is in place Ontario and the Great Lakes. This was resulting
in northwest across the northern plains into Central Indiana.
Ongoing forecast on track. Models suggest spread of afternoon
temperatures is very narrow, suggesting high confidence in the lower
to middle 80s. Overall forecast handles this well. A few afternoon
CU will be possible as max heating is reached, but overall, mostly
sunny will be the main theme of the day. Overall, ongoing forecast
in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Early This Morning...
Some high clouds will continue across the southern forecast area
from the exiting system. Meanwhile, patchy fog and stratus will
continue to develop with light winds and lingering low level
moisture.
Today...
Any fog and stratus should mix out early today. The morning will be
quiet with a good deal of sunshine most areas. However, as a cold
front moves in from the north this afternoon, a band of clouds will
accompany the front.
The front will have little or no upper support, and moisture will be
mainly confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere. There might
be enough instability for a shower or two to develop, but right now
feel that the odds are too low to mention (other than perhaps a
sprinkle).
Winds will become gusty as the front passes, with gusts to around 20
mph. Highs today will reach the lower and middle 80s.
Tonight...
High pressure will build in from the north and usher in cooler and
drier air. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures will dip into the
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Monday Through Wednesday.
Pleasant conditions are then expected for Labor Day in the aftermath
of the secondary cold front passage. By Monday morning dewpoints are
expected to have fallen to the upper 40s to near 50. Surface flow is
expected to remain northerly to northeasterly which will continue to
advect dry and cool air into central Indiana with highs in the mid
to upper 70s.
This quiet and fairly stagnant pattern is expected to continue into
Wednesday as the aforementioned surface high pressure continues to
slowly move eastward which will gradually bring an end to the
northerly flow and bring gradually warming temperatures into
Wednesday.
Thursday Through Saturday.
By Thursday the high pressure will be over the east coast which will
allow for the surface flow to become southerly again which will
bring a return to temperatures in the mid 80s. Active weather is
expected to the south of the Ohio Valley with a broad tropical
disturbance, but don't expect any impacts to Indiana other than
gradually increasing dewpoints.
Another frontal passage is looking increasingly likely towards the
end of the week with some model divergence and uncertainty in the
ensembles as to the timing. The European/Canadian members continue
to look a bit more progressive than the GFS which looks to be a
slower outlier. Thus plan to gradually ramp up POPs late Thursday
into Friday but keep things fairly broad for now with the highest
chances Friday afternoon. Another shot of Canadian air is expected
in the aftermath of the frontal passage which will bring another
cooler than normal weekend with increasing confidence in the cooler
stretch continuing into much of early next week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
Impacts:
- VFR this TAF Period.
Discussion:
Some cumulus may accompany a surface trough as it moves south across
the TAF sites this afternoon. Strong high pressure over the northern
plains will then build across Indiana and the TAF sites tonight and
Monday. A moderate pressure gradient across the area may result in
wind speeds remaining near 10 knts during the overnight hours.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 12:27 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
