BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 7:43 PM EDT110
FXUS61 KBOX 292343
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
743 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and cooler weather prevails for Friday. Summer
warmth, humidity, and periods of unsettled conditions with the
chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Though
there are considerable periods of drier weather. Drier with a
fall like feel starting Labor Day which persists into most of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Day cloud phase satellite is showing clouds slowly decreasing
in coverage from east to west this afternoon across southern New
England. Expect this trend to continue into this evening. A
mid-level shortwave trough moves through overnight; however, not
impactful weather expected to accompany it. A stray shower
across western MA/CT can't be ruled out. It will be cool night
with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Sunny skies Friday with highs in the 70s
Friday...
High pressure moves northeastward on Friday with dry conditions
persisting. Temperatures remain on the "cooler" side with highs
in the 70s across most parts, with values near 80 for portions
of the lower CT River Valley.
Friday Night...
Flow becomes southeasterly Friday evening with moisture
gradually increasing. HREF guidance is supportive of lower
clouds developing overnight into early Friday morning otherwise,
no impactful weather anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Unsettled conditions to start Labor Day Weekend with showers and
thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. A few
spot showers on Sunday afternoon, but drying conditions Sunday
night into Labor Day.
* Warm and muggy for Saturday and Sunday, turning dry and cooler for
Labor Day... Will feel more like fall!
* Dry and cooler stretch of weather Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure moves out of Canada and settles over the northeast.
Labor Day Weekend:
Sad to see it, but Labor Day Weekend is upon us, the unofficial end
to summer. While the weekend features unsettled conditions with the
threat of showers and thunderstorms, there will be considerable dry
periods as well. A broad mid-level trough deepens and traverses from
west to east, bringing with it a couple of cold fronts. This system
is progressive and should exit the region late Sunday night, leading
to a nice holiday for Monday.
As we've mentioned, not expecting a washout this weekend. Most if
not all daylight hours of Saturday are dry. While CAMs do not extend
beyond 12z Saturday, the NAM3KM does run out to 00z Sunday. Looking
it over, it shows the cold front arriving around 00z or 8pm in
western Massachusetts. During the day, a mid-level warm front moves
over the region which could produce an isolated shower. Have held
off on the higher POPs until late Saturday with highest POPs
overnight into early Sunday morning. Not out of the question to have
some thunder overnight, have values of MUCAPE around 500 J/kg with
locally higher values near the south coast. Not expecting any severe
storms, CSU ML kept those probabilities, albeit low, to our west.
There should be plenty of moisture to work with, PWATs increase to
2" with a narrow ribbon of 2.25". Locally heavier downpours remain
possible during the overnight for areas north/west of I-95. The good
news, this is a progressive and limits the risk for any widespread
flash flooding. That said, WPC kept parts of the southern New
England in a marginal risk, at least 5% risk for exceeding flash
flood guidance. The exception are RI and southeast MA.
A second and weaker front moves through sometime Sunday afternoon to
early evening with a renewed chance for scattered rain, don't expect
this to be widespread, have POPs generally less than 30%, the third
and final front comes through late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Do think we dry out fairly quickly late Sunday night with subsidence
behind the front. This sets the stage for a glorious Monday, Labor
Day, PWATs fall to below 0.5", much drier with clearing skies.
Temperature wise, it is in the middle to upper 70s on Saturday and
upper 70s to middle 80s on Sunday. Both of these days feature higher
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday and low to
middle 70s on Sunday. Once the final cold front pushes across the
region on Sunday night a surge of cooler and drier air settles into
the region. On Monday, highs are in the lower to middle 70s with
dewpoints falling from the 50s int the upper 40s.
Tuesday through Thursday:
Quiet period with high pressure moving into the northeast from
Canada. Dry and cooler weather is expected. 850mb temperatures fall
to the single digits on Tuesday, likely the cooler of the days next
week with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and lows in the 40s and
lower 50s. Dewpoints tumble too into the 40s, taste of autumn. High
pressure continues to build with slight temperature increases each
day with day time highs returning 70s Wednesday, and then middle to
upper 70s on Thursday. Dewpoints remain low Wednesday into Thursday
in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Updated: 00z
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR with dry runways. Calm/light NE winds.
Friday...High Confidence.
VFR with dry runways. East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming SE in
the afternoon.
Friday Night...High Confidence.
Increasing clouds, becoming MVFR/IFR, locally LIFR ceilings.
Areas of patchy fog possible. SE winds becoming S 5 to 8 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Numerous SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Scattered
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
A few gusts up to 20 knots in the southern waters into early
this evening with some chop over the waters. Winds shift
easterly tonight at 10-15 knots. No small craft advisories
anticipated. Seas 2-4 feet.
Friday and Friday Night...High Confidence.
Quiet weather Friday and Friday night with east-southeast winds
at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Scattered
rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Isolated rain showers.
Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 7:43 PM EDT----------------
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