ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 1:09 AM EDT192
FXUS61 KILN 170509
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow in the Ohio Valley will increase moisture ahead
of a surface low that will remain west of the region. Upper
level shortwave energy in a mean southwest flow will interact
with the moisture, producing an area of showers with some
thunderstorms that enters from the west late tonight. A more
pronounced shortwave is expected to continue this wet pattern
through the day Friday, possibly lingering overnight in some
spots.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A northern stream
shortwave will shift through the Great Lakes overnight into
Friday morning. Most guidance moves showers through the middle
Ohio Valley late tonight in the southwesterly flow ahead of the
wave. This precip remains on track... just adjusted the timing a
tad earlier.
Meanwhile, a southern branch shortwave will slowly track east
into the lower Ohio Valley and points southward toward sunrise.
It appears much of the shower activity associated with this
energy will stay to the southwest until the short term period on
Friday.
Temperatures will slowly fall into the lower 60s by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue across the CWA Friday,
potentially lingering overnight for some locations, moreso in
the southeast.
While particularly strong storms are not expected through the
period, some sw-ne training may occur and increase the flood
potential.
Highs in the mid 70s may be on the warm side if a cooling rain
process is noted to linger in the afternoon for some locations.
Overnight will keep a slight southerly flow in a moist airmass
once again. Lows will drop to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Southern stream mid level low to track east thru the Ohio
Valley Saturday. Moist sounding profile and slow storm motion
could lead to a threat for some localized heavy rain and
flooding with the focus looking to be across ILN/s southern
counties.
Model solution spread continues regarding the speed of this
system. Have followed a slightly more progressive solution, only
keeping a slight chance in the far east by Sunday.
A narrow mid level ridge will build across the area late Sunday
into Monday, providing a brief period of dry weather. This dry
period will be short lived, as the flow backs westerly turning
more progressive.
Moisture increase with a gradual increase in instability but
due to lack of forcing have limited pops to low chance category
on Tuesday. Moisture and instability increases ahead of a
stronger trof with a surface cold front moving thru the area
Wednesday. Given potential moderate instability and the passage
of stronger front - will have to watch this period for the
potential for strong storms.
Warm temperatures to continue with highs likely reaching the
80s by Sunday and then in the lower and middle 80s on both
Monday and Tuesday. Highs remain above normal but pull back into
the mid and upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the first hour or so of the
TAF period, but SHRA, with some embedded TS, will quickly
overspread the local area through 09z, with the steadiest
activity likely evolving between 09z-15z locally before activity
becomes more SCT and focused S of the terminals by late morning.
VFR CIGs should prevail for srn sites through daybreak and
beyond, but some MVFR CIGs are likely to develop/expand into nrn
parts of the area, impacting KDAY/KCMH/KLCK in the several hour
period around 12z. The steadiest SHRA/TSRA activity will also
lead to brief MVFR VSBYs, but conditions should return to mainly
VFR toward 18z as CIGs lift. Some SCT/disorganized
redevelopment is expected for the afternoon into early evening,
likely N of the steadiest early-day RA. It appears like srn
sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN will have the best chance to see some
redevelopment between about 21z-01z, but really it could occur
anywhere at anytime late day into the evening.
The best coverage of SHRA/TSRA should focus more to the SE of
the local sites beyond sunset, but the nrn fringe of lingering
activity will be very close to KCVG/KLUK/KILN through 06z. CIGs
will go back MVFR, and eventually IFR, toward 06z and beyond
Saturday, with some MVFR VSBYs also possible as the remnant LL
moisture remains entrenched across the region.
Winds will generally be light (10kts or less) out of the WSW or
S through the period, going light/VRB at times due to
convective influences. Calm winds will be possible past 00z,
leading to the aforementioned potential for some IFR CIGs and
development of BR/VSBY restrictions.
OUTLOOK...IFR CIGs are possible early Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 17, 1:09 AM EDT---------------
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