MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 10:44 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM...180
FXUS64 KMOB 260344
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1044 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
No changes to the current forecast, with a drier airmass and clear
skies over the forecast area allowing for efficient overnight
cooling. Temperatures still expected to bottom out around seasonal
norms. Upper 60s to near 70 north of Highway 84 to upper 70s
along and south of I-10 expected. /16
***************Previous*************************
Rinse and repeat forecast through Monday as the large upper ridge
just slowly builds over the southeastern US. Yet another shot of
drier air will move in leading to PWATS to drop to around 1 inch
across most of the area. As a result, the forecast looks similar
to the last couple of days with storms just offshore, maybe
sneaking along the coast during the morning and dry during the
afternoon. A few isolated showers may be possible across the
western Florida Panhandle late in the afternoon as a small tongue
of moisture drifts into the area. Temperatures will continue to
slowly nudge upwards as the ridge builds in leading to highs
mainly in the mid 90s across the area. Luckily with the drier air,
lower dewpoints will continue to yield lower heat indices keeping
things in check across the area. A MODERATE risk of rip currents
will continue through the forecast with a light to moderate east-
southeasterly surface wind. BB/03
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
To start the period, the 25.12Z global models indicate the axis
of a mid-level pressure ridge will be in place over the Mid MS and
OH River Valleys Tuesday, persisting into the day Thursday while
easing east across the eastern states. To close out the work week
and moving into the weekend, a northern stream upper trof advances
from the Upper Mid-west to across the OH River Valley and
Appalachians, favoring the westward displacement of upper ridge to
the west of the Lower MS River Valley. At the surface, high pressure
looks to remain in place from the western Atlantic into the
southeast, promoting a light and predominately easterly component to
the local wind, which becomes onshore during the course of each day.
It appears we will see a general diurnal pattern in thunderstorm
development Tuesday through Thursday with chance PoPs confined to
the southern zones closer to the sea-breeze boundary and where deep
layer moisture is more improved. Rain chances appear isolated at
best over the northern half of the local area where the southern
flank of the upper ridge results in a better degree of large scale
subsidence. Each night, PoPs taper off for land zones while edging
higher over marine areas. For Friday through Sunday, PoPs range 30
to 50%.
Highs range mostly 92 to 97. Heat index values may reach Heat
Advisory criteria of 108 at a few spots near the coast mainly from
Wednesday through Friday. Lows each night look to settle in the
lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast.
A low risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday through Friday. /10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 10:44 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM...---------------
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