LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 12:04 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...961
FXUS64 KLIX 280504
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1204 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Convection has been much more difficult than initially expected
today. Very deep moisture is on the coast and slowly working north
with TPW from GOES16 showing 2.25" along the coast and over 2" up
to I-12 but it has been slow to push any further north. With
convection struggling to move inland we have not seen a lot of
cirrus blow off move overhead and this is allowing the area to
warm up with mid and even a few upper 90s across the area. Heat
indices are a touch warmer but most of the area has still remained
below adv criteria thanks to slightly drier boundary layer air.
Tomorrow and Thursday...Forecast seems a little more straight
forward but given how much we have struggled today confidence is not
as high as we would have liked to have with respect to rain
potential. The ridge currently moving into the TN Valley will begin
to slide southeast over the next few days but it will also weaken
and place the CWA on the southwestern and the western fringes of
the ridge. PWS already increasing will continue to do so through
Thursday with over 2" PWs expected everywhere and a good chunk of
the area around 2.25". Convection is expected to develop across the
coastal waters overnight at the leading edge of a weak mid lvl jet
moving NNW out of the central Gulf and then slowly work inland near
sunrise. Slightly concerned this could be a little too fast with
convection moving inland closer to midday or possibly later. That
said all models are showing this feature tomorrow and into tomorrow
night moving across the area from the SSE to NNW. This should lead
to much better coverage. Heading into Thursday We will begin to see
a weakness in the mid lvl over the area as the ridge to out east
continue to slowly work ESE while another ridge begins build out
west. Troughing occurs between these two and will re-enforce the
weakness/mid lvl low over the area late Thursday and into the
Friday. This once again should really aid with the development of
convection. Convection will be more diurnally driven Thursday and
Thursday night but with the amount of moisture in place storms
should be quite numerous Thursday. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Maybe just maybe we can finally get some much needed beneficial
rain. Medium range models are in agreement with much higher rain
chances across the area by the end of the week, through the
weekend, and even into next week. Biggest difference is how much
of a weakness will be in place. Some solutions even have a closed
mid lvl low develop over the area between the ridge over the
Rockies and the ridge over the Bahamas and into the the far sern
CONUS. Rich and deep tropical moisture will be in place with PW's
well abv 2" and even rising to just below 2.5". There is even some
possibility of weak jet dynamics influencing the area late Friday
and into the weekend as a jet works south to south-southeast into
the eastern Gulf and even down into the western Caribbean. NBM is
advertising rather high PoPs each day, generally 60 to 80% over
much of the area with the highest PoPs over the southwestern half
of the CWA. This will be the area closer to the weakness and
farther away from the ridging to the east. That said the ridging
to the east should not be that stout and with as much moisture as
we are anticipating it will not be difficult to get convection
across most of the area.
NHC is finally highlighting an area of interest again in the 7 day
outlook but this is well out in the Atlantic and is of no
concern to the area at this time. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
Light winds and VFR conditions are prevailing areawide with only
FEW to SCT canopy in the upper-levels from convection over
coastal LA. SH/TS will initiate over the marine waters around
0900-1200 UTC and move inland. VC and TEMPO groups have been added
at all terminals starting Wednesday morning for coastal sites
(HUM, MSY, NEW, GPT) and spreading inland to ASD, HDC, BTR, and
MCB by 1800 UTC. Short periods of locally heavy rain could reduce
VIS/CIG and increase winds to 15-25 knots out of the direction in
which the storm is originating from. More specifics will be able
to be added in subsequent TAF cycles regarding TEMPO and TSRA
groups, if necessary.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Overall outside of convection marine conditions are rather benign.
A weak boundary draped across the coast will slowly mixout with
broad high pressure in place across the Gulf and much of the
southeastern CONUS. Winds for the most part should remain below 15
kts with the expection of the typical nocturnal increase east of
the MS delta. Other than that the primary concern will be storms
especially overnight through the mid morning hours. Obviously
gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning are the main
concerns but with little shear and abundant boundary layer
moisture in place, waterspouts will be favorable. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 73 88 72 / 60 10 70 20
BTR 94 77 90 75 / 70 20 80 30
ASD 92 74 90 74 / 70 30 80 40
MSY 89 77 89 77 / 70 40 90 50
GPT 90 76 90 76 / 60 30 80 40
PQL 94 75 94 75 / 60 30 70 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 12:04 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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