MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 12:31 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...571
FXUS64 KMOB 211731
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
VFR conditions will continue through Thursday morning with some
cumulus cloud development expected this afternoon. Light
northerly to northeasterly winds prevail this afternoon except for
southerly winds along the coast. Light and variable winds
continue overnight underneath mostly clear skies. /14
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
The dry airmass that provided us with a rather pleasant day
yesterday will linger in place for one more day. For today,
northwesterly flow aloft continues as our region lies in between
an upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over
the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure to our north will
allow for light northerly winds to continue. With the deep
offshore flow in place, dewpoints should once again mix down into
the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Highs today will top out
in the low to mid 90s and with the low dewpoints, apparent
temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures.
The pattern begins to change tonight and especially into Thursday as
a shortwave, embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft, moves
into our area. At the surface, a frontal boundary over the Gulf
will lift into our marine zones, possibly stalling right along the
coast. Meanwhile, the high to our north will shift towards the
Appalachians. These two features will allow for winds to turn more
easterly, helping to usher in better moisture that originated
from the Atlantic. For tonight, dewpoints will gradually increase
from east to west as the plume of moisture starts to enter the
area. Areas that see the better moisture return overnight
(generally east of I-65) will only drop into the low 70s, whereas
areas to the west of I-65 should manage to drop into the mid to
upper 60s due a more favorable environment for radiational cooling
to occur. As we get into Thursday, afternoon rain chances will
return to the forecast thanks to the increase in moisture and
increased lift from the approaching shortwave aloft. Best coverage
looks to be along and east of I-65 where the better moisture
resides. With some drier air remaining in the mid to upper levels
and modest deep layer shear values around 20-25 knots, cannot rule
out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds. Highs
tomorrow will be in the low 90s areawide. Rain chances decrease
during the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Lows
Thursday night will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid
70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low through the
near term period. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 69 93 71 90 71 90 72 92 / 0 40 20 30 20 30 20 20
Pensacola 74 90 73 89 73 89 75 91 / 0 60 30 40 30 40 30 40
Destin 76 89 74 89 74 89 76 91 / 20 60 30 40 30 40 40 30
Evergreen 69 91 68 89 66 89 69 93 / 0 50 10 10 0 10 10 10
Waynesboro 63 92 68 91 66 92 68 94 / 0 20 0 0 0 10 0 10
Camden 67 90 67 88 66 90 69 93 / 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 71 92 68 90 68 91 69 93 / 10 60 30 20 10 30 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 12:31 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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