IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 12:34 PM EDT800
FXUS63 KIWX 141634
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1234 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms developing late this afternoon.
- An unsettled pattern prevails this weekend into early next
week.
- Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80
Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Scissors have been used extensively this morning with respect to
the POP forecast today. POPs are lowest along the Michigan state
line where coverage is most questionable. POPs are highest south
of US 30, where upper-level forcing is best.
We'll be a lull, dry period, as of this writing and through at
least the early afternoon hours. Thereafter, scattered showers
and storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a
stationary front strung up along and just north of the US 30
corridor. A second area of develop will be downstream of a
stacked upper- low, whose downstream moisture advection is
currently nosing through central Indiana. Coverage of showers
and storms this afternoon and evening is still questionable,
especially given the lackluster verification of the past 24
hours. The slow evolution of today's POPs will likely linger
into Wednesday morning for a portion of the forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift
across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this
morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River
over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional
showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this
afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will
consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear
will remain low and should not be enough to support severe
storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high
precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy
downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor
drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in
the series of upper level system will bring an additional round
of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through
Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment
ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and
favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next
week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be
close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Primarily dry with cigs in the high MVFR to low VFR range. Some weak
diurnal heating may spark a few showers/storms in the vicinity of a
stationary boundary this afternoon, though point chances remain on
the low side. Better shower chances arrive this evening into the
early overnight at mainly KFWA as deeper moisture associated with a
small scale vort max advects in from the south.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Brown
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 12:34 PM EDT---------------
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