MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 5:01 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...553
FXUS64 KMOB 211001
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
The dry airmass that provided us with a rather pleasant day
yesterday will linger in place for one more day. For today,
northwesterly flow aloft continues as our region lies in between
an upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over
the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure to our north will
allow for light northerly winds to continue. With the deep
offshore flow in place, dewpoints should once again mix down into
the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Highs today will top out
in the low to mid 90s and with the low dewpoints, apparent
temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures.
The pattern begins to change tonight and especially into Thursday as
a shortwave, embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft, moves
into our area. At the surface, a frontal boundary over the Gulf
will lift into our marine zones, possibly stalling right along the
coast. Meanwhile, the high to our north will shift towards the
Appalachians. These two features will allow for winds to turn more
easterly, helping to usher in better moisture that originated
from the Atlantic. For tonight, dewpoints will gradually increase
from east to west as the plume of moisture starts to enter the
area. Areas that see the better moisture return overnight
(generally east of I-65) will only drop into the low 70s, whereas
areas to the west of I-65 should manage to drop into the mid to
upper 60s due a more favorable environment for radiational cooling
to occur. As we get into Thursday, afternoon rain chances will
return to the forecast thanks to the increase in moisture and
increased lift from the approaching shortwave aloft. Best coverage
looks to be along and east of I-65 where the better moisture
resides. With some drier air remaining in the mid to upper levels
and modest deep layer shear values around 20-25 knots, cannot rule
out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds. Highs
tomorrow will be in the low 90s areawide. Rain chances decrease
during the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Lows
Thursday night will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid
70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low through the
near term period. /96
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
For the first half of the period, the upper-level shortwave that
passed overhead during the near term slows down over the Florida
Panhandle and evolves into an upper low. Meanwhile, the upper
ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build northeast. As this
occurs, this will help to shunt the newly formed upper low
southwestward into the central Gulf by Sunday. At the surface, the
stationary frontal boundary looks to remain in place along our
coast through the weekend. This boundary will serve as a focus for
scattered showers and storms to develop along during the
afternoon hours each day. Storms should remain confined to coastal
counties and over our marine zones each day, while interior
counties generally remain dry. This is due to northeasterly flow
aloft wrapping around the upper low, helping to advect in some
drier air from the Appalachians. Highs Friday and Saturday will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s, increasing to the low to mid 90s by
Sunday as the upper low exits the region. Lows through Saturday
night will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along
the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents returns to our local
beaches for Friday and the weekend due to an increase in marine
winds, leading to rougher surf.
By the start of the week, the upper low will have retrograded
towards Texas as the upper ridge builds in from the west. This will
mark the return of our typical summertime pattern, with afternoon
storms initially firing up along the seabreeze boundary and
additional storms developing via outflow boundary collisions.
Subsidence from the nearby ridge should help to keep storm
coverage rather isolated inland and scattered closer to the coast.
At the same time, this subsidence will also help to bring back
the heat, with highs Monday and Tuesday reaching the mid to upper
90s, along with areawide lows in the 70s. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
A light to moderate offshore flow will become more variable this
afternoon and into tonight. A moderate easterly flow will develop
by Thursday and will persist through the weekend. Winds during the
mornings hours on Friday and Saturday may approach Exercise
Caution levels. Daily storm chances will also return to the marine
areas starting Thursday. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 93 69 93 71 90 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 20 30 20 30 20
Pensacola 93 74 90 73 89 73 89 75 / 0 0 60 30 40 30 40 30
Destin 91 76 89 74 89 74 89 76 / 10 20 60 30 40 30 40 40
Evergreen 93 69 91 68 89 66 89 69 / 0 0 50 10 10 0 10 10
Waynesboro 91 63 92 68 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 20 0 0 0 10 0
Camden 90 67 90 67 88 66 90 69 / 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 95 71 92 68 90 68 91 69 / 10 10 60 30 20 10 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 5:01 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
