Author Topic: [Alert]PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 2:22 PM CDT  (Read 520 times)

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PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 2:22 PM CDT

623 
FXUS63 KPAH 271922
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue through Thursday.

- There are small chances of a shower or storm in portions of
  southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana
  late tonight into Wednesday.

- Good chances of showers and storms arrive Friday with a cold
  front, with chances continuing across our region through the
  weekend, and possibly into Monday across west Kentucky and
  southeast Missouri.

- Much cooler air will spread across the area for Labor Day and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

The heat continues with surface high pressure to our southeast
providing very warm southwest flow to our region. Temperatures
this afternoon have climbed into the middle 90s with heat
indices around 100 degrees. We will remain in this pattern
through Thursday, and we will again see high temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday in the range of 95 to possibly 100
degrees. There are some concerns of our northwest counties
reaching heat advisory criteria tomorrow where some moisture
pooling may push dew points into the lower 70s. However, on the
flip side, this area is also where we could see some convection
due to this moisture and a weak surface trof to our northwest.
Additional clouds and and precipitation could easily keep
temperatures a few degrees lower, and thus below advisory
criteria. For now we will hold off on any headlines and see if
models continue to show this convection potential, and will
continue with an SPS for the heat. Included 20-30% chances
through the day Wednesday for portions of southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri. Some additional clouds region-wide Thursday
and dew points in the middle to upper 60s are expected to keep
heat indices right around 100 degrees.

Relief is on the horizon for the end of the work week and
through the holiday weekend. High pressure will continue to
very slowly move southeast, and models bring a cold front toward
our area Friday, then slowly through the PAH forecast area
Friday night into Saturday. The model blends have been trending
our precipitation chances upward over the past few runs and
produce 40-60% chances from Friday afternoon into Saturday
night. A secondary cold front and reinforcing shot of cooler air
moves through on Sunday and lingers to our south on Monday.
This will continue 30-50% chances of showers and storms on
Sunday, with chances decreasing Sunday night, and small PoPs
will linger in our southern counties on Monday. At this time,
rainfall totals are mostly around a quarter of an inch with
isolated higher amounts with storms. Not much in the way of
relieving our very dry conditions.

High temperatures Friday will drop back to the lower to middle
90s, then to the middle to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. By
Monday and Tuesday, highs will be below normal in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with dew points mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with FEW-SCT
cumulus at best and no vsby restrictions. An isolated shra-tsra
not out of the question late tonight into tomorrow morning
around KMVN, but chance too low to include.  Southwest to west
winds at 5-10kts will become light to calm after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM CDT /midnight EDT/ Wednesday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 2:22 PM CDT

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