JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 11:25 PM EDT061
FXUS63 KJKL 260325 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1125 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and gradually increasing temperatures are forecast
until the middle of the week.
- High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s may set records
Tuesday through Thursday.
- Our next area-wide chance of rain will mainly be late in the
week, though there is a slight chance of thunderstorms at times
from Tuesday night through Thursday night in some locations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
No significant changes to the forecast - just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure with its hold on the weather
for eastern Kentucky meaning mostly clear skies and light winds.
As a result, another night of decent radiational cooling is
expected yielding a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature
split along with river valley fog formation after midnight.
Currently, temperatures are running in the low 80s on the hills
and in the more open terrain while the sheltered spots are seeing
low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds,
dewpoints range from the upper 50s on the ridges of the northeast
to the low and mid 60s elsewhere. Have updated the forecast
mainly to fine tune the spot low temperatures and add in the
latest near term obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 348 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
Benign weather will persist through the short term period. Strong
upper level high pressure will be centered over the middle of the
CONUS while surface high pressure remains just to our east. Our low
level flow will continue to emanate out of the lower level high and
keep low level moisture advection to a minimum. Low level
temperature advection will also be near neutral. Rising geopotential
heights and weak flow atop our dry air mass will keep skies mostly
clear. Sunshine each day will work to warm/modify the air mass, and
dew points will also show a slow increase as the air mass
modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
At the beginning of the extended forecast period, strong upper level
ridging and an associated surface high pressure system will remain
in place over the Southeastern United States. Forecast guidance
generally agrees that both of these features will slowly propagate
eastward through the week, meaning that above-normal temperatures
and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will be favored synoptically
for much of the work week. Afternoon highs will rise from the
low/mid 90s on Tuesday to the mid/upper 90s on Wednesday and
Thursday. While winds throughout the column will be fairly light
given the pattern, the subtle shift from northerly to southerly
directional components that occurs as the aforementioned synoptic
features slide east will favor a gradual increase in atmospheric
moisture content. As such, the probability of seeing apparent
temperatures greater than 100 degrees mark increases each day this
week. This upward trend is reflected in the latest probabilistic
DESI ensemble guidance, as is the geographic trend for the highest
temperatures to be in Western and Northern portions of the forecast
area. Heat indices max out at about 103 degrees in said areas on
Thursday afternoon. This is just below heat advisory criteria, but
it does not mean that heat impacts are impossible in Eastern
Kentucky this week. Most of the area will experience heat indices
greater than 90 degrees on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
afternoons. NWS HeatRisk mapping depicts a moderate (level 2/5) risk
for heat-related impacts across our area on these dates. Heat-
sensitive parties, such as those working outside or those engaging
in outdoor recreational activities, should thus plan to take breaks
and drink plenty of water this week.
The other point of interest in this particular long-term forecast
will be the return of rain chances. Earlier in the week, a couple of
shortwave upper-level disturbances will pass to our north. The best
PoPs from these disturbances will subsequently remain out of the
forecast area, but leftover convection may move into the northern
third of the forecast area early on Wednesday morning and later
again that night. On Thursday, amidst peak diurnal heating and
increased moisture return, slight chances of afternoon and evening
storms appear possible, but the greatest chances for precipitation
will occur on Friday into Saturday. On the backside of the departing
ridging, upper level troughing and a surface cold front approach the
area. With antecedent warmth and a more favorable moisture profile,
the approach of this system yields chance PoPs on Friday and
Saturday. The chances for organized severe weather and/or
hydrological issues are low with this particular system at the
moment, but the rain and subsequent increase in cloud coverage next
weekend will work to provide some relief from the heat earlier this
week. Temperatures on Saturday will return to seasonable normals in
the mid to upper 80s, and a drying/clearing trend appears plausible
for Labor Day weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
VFR conditions with light winds are expected through the period,
with the exception of IFR valley fog or worse in most of the usual
locations in the early morning hours, primarily between 06 and
13Z. For TAF sites, the most likely location to see some MVFR
conditions in fog towards dawn Monday is KSME, but it also cannot
be ruled out for KLOZ. A tempo was included for this in the
former's TAF.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 11:25 PM EDT---------------
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