MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:22 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...785
FXUS64 KMOB 191722
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
VFR conditions will persist with a light north-northeasterly
winds. BB/03
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
After a quick uptick in storm activity, storms have dissipated
and/or moved out of the area. This has left muggy conditions across
a large portion of the area, with dewpoints generally in the mid to
upper 70s. The previously advertised cold front, which will provide
some much needed relief from the oppressive heat the last few days,
remains to our north and will slowly sag southward through the day.
Prior to its arrival, isolated to scattered storms will remain
possible along our southern areas, but these chances will come to an
end by the afternoon. The upper level trough will remain along the
eastern CONUS, with northwest flow aloft continuing through the near
term period. This, along with the cold front, will bring much drier
air across the region and limit rain chances through midweek.
Additionally, dewpoints will drop into the lower to mid 60s for much
of the area tonight. Despite the cold front and drier air, ample
sunshine and heating will allow highs to climb into the lower 90s
across the north to the upper 90s along the coast today. The good
news is that with the lower dewpoints, heat indices will be several
degrees below heat advisory criteria. Even better news, clear skies
and calm winds will provide very good radiational cooling conditions
and overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s
tonight. This airmass will be further settled in our area on
Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows
will fall into the lower to mid 60s areawide Tuesday night. /73
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024
The mid level trough will maintain its hold on the weather pattern
for much of the eastern CONUS through the latter half of the week.
The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of the
trough, with northwest flow allowing shortwaves to move through the
area. A boundary (the front moving through currently) will be just
off the coast at the start of the period, and is expected to lift
northward Wednesday night. After a dry day on Wednesday, showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the convergence axis, enhanced by
the weak shortwaves aloft. Guidance is fairly consistent on stalling
this convergence axis on Thursday, with it meandering north/south
during the day. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in
our coastal waters, with chances decreasing as you move inland.
Although this activity will be diurnally enhanced, with the lift
along the boundary and some forcing associated with the embedded
shortwaves, the chance for showers/storms will linger into the
overnight hours.
By Friday, the aforementioned trough will begin to lift to the
northeast as a ridge builds in from the southern Plains. The surface
boundary will dissipate for the most part, though a weak convergence
axis looks to set up once again along our coastal counties. This
pattern will persist through the weekend, as the ridge to our west
struggles to move eastward and we remain situated between the ridge
and a building trough in the Gulf. The northern portion of the ridge
will provide enough of an influence over our northern tier of
counties, with subsidence limiting the rain chances in these areas.
Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will likely move along the coast,
with the chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing into the
weekend. The better chance for showers/storms will be along and
south of I-10.
Temperatures through the period will be near seasonal norms, with
highs warming into the lower 90s. Overnight lows will be fairly
pleasant for portions of the area, with lows falling into the lower
60s on Thursday. These cooler temps will be short-lived, as we
overnight lows warm back into the 70s by the weekend. /73
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 94 68 93 69 94 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 40
Pensacola 75 95 73 94 73 93 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 30 50
Destin 76 94 74 93 75 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 20 40 40 50
Evergreen 67 92 64 92 65 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
Waynesboro 68 92 65 91 63 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
Camden 67 88 63 87 65 90 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10
Crestview 69 95 67 95 69 94 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 20 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:22 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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