CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:32 PM EDT622
FXUS61 KCLE 272232
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
632 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Upper Great Lakes through this
evening and push east into Canada. This low will drag a cold
front south across the area tonight into Wednesday. This
frontal boundary will stall near the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
6:00 PM Update...
We are monitoring a line of thunderstorms moving in from the
northwest out of Michigan. Latest mesoanalysis data has a sharp
instability gradient with much less instability and much greater
CIN in our forecast area, so theoretically this line of storms
should dissipate but there is a lot of uncertainty with when
these storms weaken and how long they can maintain some
strength. It's feasible that's some isolated to scattered severe
or near-severe gusts are contained within this line as it moves
across Lake Erie and the far northern part of our forecast area.
Previous Discussion...
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the area
through this evening. 2 PM heat index values have managed to
climb above the century mark at Toledo Executive and Sandusky
County Region. Radar remains quiet as the cap is holding so
far. The upper level high at 5h of 5940m was parked over the Mid
Mississippi Valley with the ridge axis from the high to east
half of the Great Lakes region. A short wave over Minnesota will
track east this evening and overnight. Several model continue
to struggle with timing a MCS thunderstorm complex track across
Michigan this evening and across the Lake Erie between 05z and
11z Wednesday. This convection could linger into morning
commute. The main threat will be marine winds overnight and
isolated strong to gusty winds for lakeshore areas predawn to 10
am Wednesday and convection should weaken farther south and
away from the main short wave and dynamics.
SPC has updated the Slight Risk area for severe storms across
north central and central Ohio for Wednesday. The ridge axis is
expected to dampen and shift east on Wednesday. In addition,
last short wave will initiate convection over central Indiana
and track east across west central and central Ohio Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The primary threat albeit isolated is
damaging winds from isolated storms.
There is great deal uncertainty on the cloud debris on Wednesday
from morning convection. Temps will be impeded a tad by clouds
and we have are on hold with issuing an advisory. Additional
rain chances are elevated near the second round of storms. As a
result, we did not issue a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak frontal boundary will stall out over central or southern Ohio
on Thursday. There will be a weak easterly or northeasterly flow
over the area Thursday. In the upper levels, a small ridge will
track from west to east across the southern Great Lakes region
Thursday into Thursday evening. With the stalled front near central
Ohio, we will keep in a 20 to 30 percent POP for Thursday afternoon
and evening. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday,
ranging from the lower 80s near the lakeshore and the upper 80s
closer to central Ohio.
The stalled front over Ohio will begin to retreat northward Thursday
night into Friday morning. A broad upper level trough will take
shape over the Northern CONUS moving into the Great Lakes region on
Friday. A cold front will slide through the Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley Friday afternoon into the overnight. Ahead of that cold
front, high temperatures will climb back in the lower and middle 90s
Friday afternoon. The heat index may also rise back into the upper
90s to around 100 degrees again Friday afternoon. Scattered showers
and storms will increase from west to east late Friday afternoon
into the evening. POPs will become likely Friday evening into the
overnight hours as this cold front will track slowly into the area.
A few strong to severe storms may be possible with damaging winds
and large hail.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will continue to track slowly southeastward across
the area on Saturday. Scattered showers and isolated storms will
again be possible, mainly over our central and northeast Ohio
counties as well as NWPA on Saturday. Northwest Ohio and Lake Erie
will be drier on Saturday behind the cold front. Temperatures will
also be cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday. The broad
upper level trough will sharpen up and dig across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday which will help push a secondary cold front through
the area Sunday afternoon. There could be a few spotty showers with
the secondary cold front Sunday into Sunday evening. High
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to middle 80s before that
stronger secondary cold front passes through on Sunday. High
pressure and a much cooler airmass will start to move in Sunday
night and Monday. High temperatures on Monday will only be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s with some lake effect clouds and maybe a few
lake effect rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through 00Z and good chance of TSRA
between 11Z and 18Z Wed for all taf sites. Low pressure is
expected to track is forecast to cross northern Lake Huron this
afternoon dragging a cold front settling south. There is some
uncertainty with the remnant outflow boundaries from this
morning. However, cap should hold and only isolated convection
is expected with coverage too low to mention in tafs through 00Z
Wed.
Several short range are targeting convection developing
over eastern Michigan and tracking southeast. This activity will
affect all taf sites but taper by noon on Wednesday. If
thunderstorms occur overnight, the potential exists for strong
wind gusts of 40 knots. An initial tempo group with gust 25
knots is start and later packages should adjust higher with
certainty of the location of strong storms overnight into
Wednesday morning.
Winds will become light again tonight. A lake breeze is
possible at ERI this afternoon but think it is unlikely to reach
CLE.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible Wednesday through Friday in
thunderstorms. Wednesday morning and Friday afternoon into
Friday night are the two periods mostly likely to experiences
thunderstorms and subsequent non-VFR conditions.
.MARINE...
A weak cold front will drift southward across Lake Erie Wednesday
morning. Southwest winds 5 to 12 knots are expected ahead of this
front tonight. Winds will become westerly by Wednesday morning and
northerly 8 to 15 knots by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will continue
to shift becoming easterly or northeasterly by Wednesday night into
Thursday. The weak front will stall south of the lake but retreat
northward as a warm front Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds
will become south to southeasterly 5 to 12 knots by Friday morning
and shifting from the southwest by Friday afternoon. Another cold
front will move across the lake Friday night into Saturday morning.
With offshore flow and winds, waves are expected to be 1 to 2 feet.
With the onshore flow, waves will become 2 to 3 feet. A light
westerly wind 5 to 10 knots will return on Saturday. A slightly
stronger cold front will move across the lake Sunday afternoon with
a slightly stronger northerly winds 10 to 15 knots. At this time, no
headlines are anticipated through Saturday.
Thunderstorms may drop southeast across Lake Erie overnight with
gusty winds late tonight into Wednesday morning. A few more
thunderstorms are possible over the lake with the cold front early
Wednesday, but confidence is low. A few thunderstorms may occur over
the lake late Friday afternoon into Friday night with the next cold
front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will approach record values at some climate sites on
Tuesday and Wednesday. The following are record highs during the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame (August 27-28).
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
08-27 99(1993) 93(1983) 102(1948) 97(1948) 96(1948) 92(1948)
08-28 96(1973) 92(1973) 98(1953) 94(1973) 96(1948) 93(2018)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-
017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FZ
NEAR TERM...FZ/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...Sullivan
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 6:32 PM EDT---------------
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