LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 3:04 AM EDT341
FXUS63 KLMK 260704
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Hot temperatures and mostly dry weather expected through much of
the week. Daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s will be common,
with the heat index just over 100 on Wednesday and possibly
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Broad surface high pressure is situated over the eastern CONUS and
strong ridging aloft is slowly moving east. These features are
continuing to impact the region through dry conditions, light
southerly winds, mostly sunny skies (few diurnal cumulus clouds),
lower dew points, and above normal temperatures.
Sunday will be very similar today, just a bit warmer. 1000-850mb
thicknesses will be around 1428m over the Lake Cumberland region and
1430-1435m over the rest of the region in the afternoon, which would
correspond to about 89-94F using the Massie-Rose equation. Forecast
soundings show a mild dry air mix down set up, where lower dew
points will mix down to the surface in the afternoon. Lower dew
points will help take the edge off of these warmer temperatures.
In the evening, winds will become calm-light and skies will clear.
Ample radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall into
the upper 60s and low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Hot and dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week as a
strong upper high migrates from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Deep South. Sfc ridging only begins to retreat east of the
Appalachians, so the depth of the return flow remains limited, but
moisture will slowly increase.
Low-level thickness progs suggest temps a degree or two warmer each
day through Wednesday, by which time we could be flirting with 100
degrees especially in the Louisville Metro. Dewpoints remaining in
the lower/mid 60s will limit heat index values, but we could very
well see a triple digit heat index both Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect to be short of advisory levels, so any headline would be
duration-based, and we are not confident in 4 days of triple digit
heat indices so no headlines are planned.
RIdging starts to break down late in the week, so confidence in the
dry forecast is fairly limited for Thursday. Best rain chances will
be Friday with a broad northern stream trof settling into the Great
Lakes and pushing a weak cold front into the Ohio Valley. Precip on
Friday looks fairly scattered in nature, and the change in air mass
will be subtle and gradual, with temps remaining near or still above
normal, and lower dewpoints not arriving until Sat night/Sunday. By
Sunday the precip chances should also be confined to south of the
Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024
High pressure over much of the eastern United States will keep winds
light and skies mostly clear during this TAF period. Persistence and
the continued presence of a warm, stagnant atmosphere suggest BWG
and HNB could briefly see some in-and-out high-end MVFR vis around
dawn. FEW-SCT Cu will develop in the afternoon over most of the
area.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 3:04 AM EDT---------------
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