LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 12:39 AM EDT454
FXUS63 KLMK 250439
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1239 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather expected
through much of next week. The highest temperatures are expected
next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
A weakening disturbance to our west is streaming high level clouds
into our forecast area. Kentucky Mesonet obs shows temps across the
state in the 70's this evening, except for the urban heat islands,
which are still in the low 80's. For tonight, expect dry conditions
to continue with temps cooling into the 60's. Some patchy fog may
develop in the pre-dawn hours, though best chances are east of I-65.
The diurnal cu has diminished with the loss of daytime heating. For
the rest of the evening, high level cirrus will be quietly streaming
overhead from a disturbance to our west. VFR conditions will remain
throughout the forecast period, with light and variable winds
overnight. Daytime heating tomorrow will support sct diurnal cu
development, with southerly winds expected under 10kts.The
overall forecast is in great shape, no changes are planned at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH Sunday/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Warm temperatures and dry conditions look to continue through the
short term. The core of the upper level ridge over the southern
Plains will begin to meander NNE tonight into tomorrow, while broad
surface high pressure remains parked across the eastern CONUS. With
little movement/changes in these features expected over the next 24
hours, expect a repeat of today's conditions for tomorrow, with only
slightly increased high temps forecasted tomorrow as low level
thicknesses rise in response to the approaching ridge. Dewpoints
will continue to hover in the low/mid 60s range as low-level
moisture streamlines keep the fetch coming from the Atlantic Ocean
vs the Gulf of Mexico where richer low level moisture resides. While
high temps will hit low 90s in many spots Sunday afternoon, heat
indices will generally be within a degree or two of air temps given
the 'lower' dewpoints.
&&
.LONG TERM /Sunday Night THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Synopsis...Upper-level ridging will be the dominant weather feature
across much of the central and eastern portions of North America
this week. The center of the ridge axis which is over the central
Plains this weekend will gradually get pushed eastward this week as
shortwave disturbances slide across the northern U.S. and southern
Canada later in the extended forecast period. While one of these low-
amplitude troughs will bring a surface low and cold front through
the upper Midwest on Wednesday, the majority of medium-range
ensemble guidance washes this front out before it can move through
the Ohio Valley. While this first disturbance will do little more
than flatten out the upper ridge, a second stronger shortwave late
week into next weekend is expected to transition the pattern into
one characterized by either zonal flow or low-amplitude troughing
across the eastern half of North America (guidance sources vary).
Additionally, this second disturbance should bring another cold
front into the region for Friday into next Saturday, although this
front may get held up over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys next
weekend.
Impacts...Heat looks to be the main impact over the next week as
widespread temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s appear likely for
Tuesday through Thursday. A ridge in low- and mid-level heights over
the Tennessee valley will help to keep the greatest moisture south
and west of the region. This will both reduce precipitation chances
for much of the week and keep heat index values in check. Still,
heat indices should flirt around or just above 100 degrees during
the mid-week period. As precipitation chances start to increase
ahead of the late week front, temperatures should cool slightly;
however, above normal temperatures are expected to continue into
Friday. Next weekend is favored to feature more typical summertime
temperatures; however, forecast confidence is tied to the existence
of the aforementioned cold front, which is still uncertain.
With multiple days of hot and sunny conditions expected, a return to
drought conditions will be possible across the area. Wednesday into
Wednesday night, the weaker cold front may bring just enough
moisture and instability with it to support a few showers and
storms, mainly north of I-64. Better (but still relatively
low/uncertain) chances for showers and storms are expected with the
second disturbance late week into next weekend, with current PoPs
generally between 20-30% for next Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period as weak
return flow continues across the Ohio Valley. Winds will oscillate
from SSE by night to SSW by day, with scattered high-based diurnal
cu.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 12:39 AM EDT---------------
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