IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 12:52 AM EDT844
FXUS63 KIND 240452
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1252 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and more humid Saturday
- Low thunderstorm chances are included for Saturday night
- Above normal heat is expected Sunday onward, with excessive heat
possible Monday and Tuesday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Very quiet and pleasant evening across central Indiana under the
continued influence of surface high pressure.
No changes are required to the going forecast. Light winds and very
good radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, as while
dewpoints did rise a bit in the last day or so, particularly
southwest, this more humid airmass has not yet made its way fully
across the area just yet, but will begin to do so tomorrow as
surface winds become more southwesterly.
Cannot rule out some light patchy fog near sunrise, particularly in
valleys and other typically fog prone areas, but this will be of
little consequence and should not be significant enough to merit a
mention.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
Rest of This Afternoon...
Some scattered cumulus will linger across the southern forecast area
where better low level moisture will remain. Otherwise, some high
clouds and elevated smoke will drift across the area.
Tonight...
Quiet weather will continue tonight with upper heights slowly on the
rise and lingering influence from surface high pressure to the east.
Some high and mid clouds will pass through at times leaving skies
mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Blended guidance may be a bit warm tonight for lows in the northeast
where dry air and a dry ground will allow for good cooling. Farther
southwest, higher dewpoints will keep temperatures from falling as
much. Lows will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Saturday...
Winds will become southwest Saturday morning, and this will bring in
warmer and more humid air to central Indiana. There will be cumulus
around thanks to the higher moisture content.
Some CAMs show isolated convection developing in the afternoon
instability. Without any forcing, feel that odds of any convection
developing are too low to mention (but are non-zero).
Blended guidance looks to be a bit high for high temperatures thanks
to the overaggressive GFS. Will trim back a bit, but temperatures
will still peak in the middle 80s to around 90.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
A strong ridge currently located over the southern Plains is
expected to gradually build eastward this weekend. At the surface,
high pressure slides eastward as well allowing winds to become
southwesterly. Strong warm air advection is expected to begin and
continue through the weekend. A trend towards warmer-than-normal
temperatures is likely, with highs once again climbing into the
lower 90s at times.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the aforementioned
synoptic setup and evolution. Uncertainty in the forecast arises
with smaller-scale features that may allow for some precipitation
chances by Sunday. These features (shortwaves riding up and over the
ridge) should interact with a broad area of isentropic lift / warm
advection to help initiate scattered showers/storms late Saturday
into Sunday. Guidance currently keeps the bulk of this activity west
of us across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Nevertheless, there are
some solutions within the broader ensemble that bring precipitation
into Indiana. Will include slight chance PoPs on Sunday to account
for this, but confidence is low given rather ambiguous model support.
Next week, ensemble guidance hints that the ridge flattens a bit.
Despite this, above-normal temperatures should persist as no air
mass change appears imminent. Combined with humidity, heat indices
may approach criteria level Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic models
occasionally bring a cold front through the region late in the week,
but timing and intensity differs run-to-run and model-to-model. As
such, confidence in the forecast after about Thursday decreases
substantially.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1251 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions will continue through this evening with high pressure
across the region. Skies will be mostly clear through daybreak with
just periodic cirrus passing through. As winds veer around to
southwest later this morning...moisture will increase with model
soundings supporting scattered to broken diurnal cu for the
afternoon. Cu will diminish this evening with the possibility for an
increase in high clouds late tonight as convection develops to the
northwest of central Indiana.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 12:52 AM EDT---------------
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