JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 4:00 PM EDT799
FXUS63 KJKL 232000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and gradually increasing temperatures are forecast
through Wednesday.
- High temperatures may approach daily records in the lower to mid 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
- Our next small potential of rain arrives around Wednesday and
Thursday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
An upper level low is over the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon,
and strong ridging aloft is centered over the south central CONUS.
At the surface, relatively strong high pressure is centered just to
our east near the crest of the Appalachians and will remain there
through the short-term period. Through Saturday night, the upper low
will depart to the northeast and the upper ridge will gradually
build to the north and east. At the surface, the high will slowly
weaken and drift slightly eastward, but the changes will have
negligible impact. Our low level flow will continue to emanate out
of the high and keep low level moisture advection to a minimum. Low
level temperature advection will also be near neutral. Rising
geopotential heights and benign, weak flow atop our dry air mass
will keep skies mostly clear. Sunshine each day will work to
warm/modify our air mass, and dew points will also show a slow
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
The upper level ridge that has been across the south-central U.S.
for the last week or more will finally begin to shift ENE to start
the extended, becoming centered across Kentucky and surrounding
states for the rest of the period. This strong subsidence will
continue the clear and dry weather, but will also result in
temperatures modifying warmer each day. What is interesting about
this system is that because it moves in from the SW, we will keep
our NW to SE flow aloft across the state through the first part of
the week, so even though temperatures increase, humidity will not.
It won't be until Wednesday and Thursday, when the the upper level
ridge is directly overhead, that we will start to see humidity
increasing. This will also coincide with our warmest days of the
forecast period. On Tuesday and Wednesday, highs are forecast to top
out in the mid and upper 90s, and heat indices increasing to the
upper 90s and low 100s by Wednesday afternoon. Can't rule out
nearing some high temperature records for these days as well if this
forecast holds.
On Thursday, the ridge begins to break down as an upper level trough
sets up and strengthens across the north-central Conus.
Surprisingly, the models are all in pretty good agreement even on
Day 7. A frontal boundary will likely move into the area beginning
Wednesday afternoon, and stall out into Thursday. This could result
in some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. A couple things to note
here... First is that this frontal boundary is moving into very
stable air, so it will likely lose energy and limit instability.
Second, the fact that we are at the very end of the forecast will
likely mean changes in the forecast as we near this time frame.
While we are only low end chances right now, these could increase is
model confidence increases, or it could also lesson if high pressure
trends stronger.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions will affect the deeper
valleys during late night and early morning hours, but is unlikely
to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds
are expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC/HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 4:00 PM EDT---------------
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