JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 4:40 AM EDT743
FXUS63 KJKL 230840
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and gradually daily increasing temperatures are
forecast through Wednesday.
- Our next small potential of rain is on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
An upper level low is over the Canadian Maritimes early this
morning, and strong ridging aloft is centered over the south
central CONUS. At the surface, relatively strong high pressure is
centered just to our east near the crest of the Appalachians.
Through Saturday, the upper low will depart to the northeast and
the upper ridge will gradually build to the north and east. At
the surface, the high will slowly weaken and drift slightly
eastward, but the changes will have negligible impact. Our low
level flow will continue to emanate out of the high and keep low
level moisture advection to a minimum. Low level temperature
advection will also be near neutral. Rising geopotential heights
and benign, weak flow atop our dry air mass will keep skies mostly
clear. Sunshine each day will work to warm/modify our air mass,
and dew points will also show a slow increase as the air mass
modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
Based on the latest runs of several forecast models, the extended
period will continue to be dominated by a large ridge of Canadian
high pressure that move slowly eastward across the eastern half of
the CONUS. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be on tap through
late Thursday morning. With ridging being nearly overhead during
that time, the night time periods will be primed for modest ridge
valley temperature splits and patchy valley fog that will quickly
burn off each morning.
The ridge will finally begin to weaken slightly, and move off to our
east, late Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak area of low
pressure aloft moves in from the west. This trough will move slowly
eastward just north of the US/Canadian border to end the week, and
will drag a weak frontal boundary through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley regions during that time. There will enough moisture in place
to spark isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms across our
area, but the front looks to be ill defined and may not offer enough
lift for more than a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain Thursday night
and Friday.
Temperatures will be quite warm during the extended as well, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s each day, as high
pressure dominates and strong sunshine steadily warms the air mass
leading up the passage of the end of week system. Nightly ridge
valley splits will also be favored with high pressure overhead, with
a four to five degree split possible each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions will grow in depth and
breadth in the deeper valleys through sunrise, and then dissipate
in the morning. It is unlikely to affect TAF sites, but can't
completely rule it out at KLOZ or KSME. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds are expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 4:40 AM EDT---------------
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