PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 7:30 AM EDT459
FXUS61 KPBZ 231130
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
730 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature through the
weekend and into next week, maintaining dry conditions and
relatively light wind. Temperatures will gradually warm and be
at least 5 degrees above normal by the end of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry conditions, light wind, and mostly sunny skies.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
It's another relatively cool start to the morning after
efficient overnight radiational cooling, with patchy river
valley fog quickly dissipating after sunrise. High pressure
that has settled into the region will maintain mostly sunny
skies, light winds, and temperatures right around normal for
this time of year (upper 70s to low 80s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An amplifying central CONUS ridge will maintain northwesterly
flow aloft and dry conditions through the weekend. 588dm h500
heights and 18-19C 850mb temperatures point towards temperatures
around 5 degrees above normal (mid 80s on average). River valley
fog will continue to develop overnight and dissipate by mid
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures remain 5 to 10F above normal next week.
- Largely dry conditions continue.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The mentioned upper ridge will slide east next week which should
maintain dry conditions for the majority of next week. Latest
ensemble guidance shows continued single digit precipitation
probabilities. With the ridge axis progged to be more centered
over the eastern CONUS, highs could be pushing 90F in the PGH
metro area by the middle of next week when NBM MaxT
probabilities of 90F+ hit around 60%.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR and light, variable wind is expected under the influence of
high pressure. River valley fog will develop between 06z-12z
given strong radiational cooling and warm waters, but
probabilities remain low for fog decks to reach favored
terminals (FKL/DUJ/HLG).
.Outlook...
High confidence in VFR and light wind as high pressure dominates
the weather regime through Sunday. Weak shortwave movement
within NW flow may offer low probability precipitation chances
along/ahead of a weak boundary to start the next work week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Craven/88
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 7:30 AM EDT---------------
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