PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 10:26 AM EDT567
FXUS61 KPBZ 201426
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1026 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected through the
remainder of the week before a warm up next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cloud coverage remains into Tuesday with lows and highs below
average.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Continued northwest flow and weak cold air advection has kept
the blanket of stratocu in place this morning, though with
gradual daytime heating, the coverage has transitioned to more
of a convective cumulus field. Judging by upstream profiles, we
won't be seeing a significant dry air push in the low levels to
erode the cloud coverage, so we will be relying on mixing of
drier air from above 850 mb evident on the 12z PIT sounding to
scatter it out. Ensembles exhibit quite a bit of spread on the
extent of the coverage through this afternoon which makes high
temperatures tricky. The most likely scenario looks to be
eastern OH getting the most insolation and thus the warmest
while clouds are slower to erode elsewhere. This favors
Pittsburgh and south in the upper 60s/near 70 while areas north
might not surpass the mid 60s. Models struggle at times with
the extent of cloud coverage in northwest flow patterns, and did
yesterday, so opted a bit more conservative on highs where
clouds are more likely to be stubborn. Otherwise the day will be
dry with a northerly breeze gusting to 15-20 mph at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather with below average temperatures continue through mid-
week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Heading into tonight, as the cooler air really settles in,
probabilities for lows <50F Tuesday night shoot up to 80-90+%
outside of the urban areas; Wednesday morning will start off a
chilly one.
A similar story continues for Wednesday as the core of the
upper low moves closer overhead. 850 mb temperatures tick up a
smidgen and less cloud cover than Tuesday provides higher
probabilities for exceeding 70 for most south of I-80. Some
patchy river valley fog is possible with the cool air moving
over still relatively warm water temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues through week's end.
- Temperatures favored to moderate and even get above normal by
the weekend into next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble clusters exhibit some spread from the mean primarily with
the timing of the upper low's departure by week's end. General
agreement is that it pulls off to the northeast on Thursday as
ridging amplifies off toward the central CONUS result in northwest
flow aloft locally. The disagreement may have some impact on area
temperatures depending how quickly heights rise, but regardless high
pressure will remain firmly in place providing a dry end to the
week. Temperatures will climb back toward seasonal normals by
the weekend, with a signal for potentially above average values
come early next week. The dry weather stands the potential to
drag on into the following week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Residual cool advection within NW flow will foster areas of
bkn/ovc stratocu with sub-5kft VFR cigs through this morning.
This transitions to a diurnally driven cu field this afternoon,
with subsequent lifting and scattering occurring through the
evening. Clear to mostly clear skies are likely after 00z, with
most uncertainty lingering near FKL/DUJ where lake influence
may maintain bkn VFR stratocu (20-30% chance).
.Outlook...
High confidence in VFR and light wind as high pressure dominates
the weather regime into next weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB/Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 10:26 AM EDT---------------
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