LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 8:44 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...559
FXUS63 KLMK 220044
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
844 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Another cool start on Thursday with morning lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
* Fair weather continues into the weekend. Above normal
temperatures return this weekend and persist into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Things are quiet across the region as high pressure continues to
control our sensible weather. Looking for another cool overnight as
light winds and clearing skies allow for good radiational cooling.
Do have a decent batch of upper clouds over southern KY currently
that will likely push SE around Midnight or so. Lows are expected to
bottom out mostly in the low 50s, however some upper 40s are
expected in the typical cooler spots. Forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
NW flow continues aloft with a closed low spinning northeast over
eastern NY and VT. An upper level ridge continues to slowly expand
eastward over the Plains. A weak mid-level shortwave impulse is
diving southeast over the Mid-MS Valley and will bring a brief
uptick in cloud cover to the southwestern half of the forecast area
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will
continue through much of the short term. A pleasantly dry airmass
remains in place with afternoon sfc dewpoints in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 70s and will
likely rise another couple of degrees at least.
Tonight looks clear and cool with Thursday morning lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s in most spots. We'll likely have a few low-lying
areas again dip into the mid 40s. Expect a broad diurnal temperature
range given the fairly dry airmass in place. With gradually
increasing heights and thicknesses, temperatures will be warmer by
Thursday afternoon (relative to today). Look for highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s, with a 5-10 mph easterly wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Strong upper level ridging centered over the southern Plains will
steadily nudge eastward for the end of the week into the weekend,
resulting in a gradual warming trend as low-level
thicknesses/heights increase. Highs by the weekend look to touch the
upper 80s to low 90s. Southerly to southwesterly flow will result in
increasing dewpoints heading into the weekend, though they will
still be at fairly tolerable levels for mid August (low to mid 60s)
to take a little 'edge' off the heat. The proximity of the ridge
will promote subsidence aloft to keep rain chances near 0%.
By early next week, a deep upper level trough will swing into the
central U.S. and 'flatten' the stubborn southern Plains upper level
ridge. Most of the energy associated with the trough will be
deflected to our north, and the ridge core may even wobble slightly
eastward closer to us in this timeframe. Current forecast temps are
projected to be warmer as a result, with highs climbing into the
low/mid 90s in spots. Depending on where the core of the ridge
settles, will have to keep an eye on MCS activity as a few models
prog some systems/waves riding along the northern/eastern periphery
of the ridge to pass close to the area. At this time, though, the
majority of guidance keeps us dry, so the current forecast reflects
no precipitation through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
VFR conditions continue under persistent high pressure. Surface
winds will be light NE tonight, and then a bit more steady around 7-
12 mph tomorrow out of the E. A few upper clouds will be noted at
times, but overall mostly sunny/clear skies through this forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 8:44 PM EDT ...Forecast Update...---------------
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