MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 1:25 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, MESOSCALE UPDATE...579
FXUS64 KMOB 181825
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
125 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
...New AVIATION, MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon and evening
before a line of isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop along
a advancing cold front. These storms will likely move through the
area this evening and into the overnight hours tonight. Gusty
winds may accompany the strongest of storms along with reductions
in visibilities and ceilings. MVFR ceiling will likely accompany
the passing front and storms. Westerly winds today will turn
northerly tonight as the cold front passes. VFR conditions will
return behind the front. BB/03 &&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
(Now through Tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Primarily going to focus on the potential for some stronger storms
later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. This mornings
guidance has certainly thrown a wrench into the forecast as not
only will storms be delayed till this evening but also questions
in coverage and intensity seem to be holding back the potential
today. IT appears the main shortwave trough will enter the area
around 6 to 7pm at the earliest. Prior to that do not expect
anything in the way of storms as water vapor shows rather deep dry
air in place. The question will be when that shortwave pivots
through this evening into the overnight hours. The drier air aloft
is expected to move out some; however, enough will likely be in
place to make it difficult for storms to organize and develop. Low
level storm relative inflow looks to be on the lower side which
would support smaller updrafts that are more susceptible to dry
air entrainment and will require more clustering to develop a more
established updraft. With all that in mind, storms look to be
more isolated this evening than maybe we previously suspected and
will likely require a more robust kick to get organized. Would
really expect storms to survive a little better along and east of
a line extending from Butler Alabama to Pensacola Florida,
especially across interior south central Alabama.
Now if we can get storms to sustain themselves, that dry air
mentioned earlier becomes a bigger issue. Dry air can help limit
storms but it can also promote more instability and stronger
downdrafts in storms. With that dry air in place and a little bit
of unseasonable shear associated with the shortwave trough, a
rather potent environment for mid August is in place. While storms
may be hard to come by, the storms that are able to intensify and
utilize this environment will have the potential to become severe
with time. Damaging winds will be the primary threat; however, do
not ignore the potential for some larger hail maybe in excess of
quarter size. The combination of a deep unstable profile,
especially in the hail growth zone, weak low level storm relative
inflow, the potential for undercutting/elevated storms behind the
advancing cold front and stronger deep layer shear provides a
rather impressive summertime hail environment for the central Gulf
Coast. If cells remain isolated then the hail threat may end up
being as substantial as the wind threat. Nonetheless while storms
may be hard to come by this evening, what storms that do develop
could pose a threat for a bigger severe threat than say your
normal summertime thunderstorm. BB/03
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024
A "cold" front will push through the region Monday morning in
response to a highly amplified trough positioned along the
eastern seaboard. There could be a small chance of rain along the
immediate coast early Monday morning as the front pushes through,
however, a significant surge of deep layer dry air will quickly
shut off precip chances as the day progresses. High temperatures
will remain on the hot side Monday despite the frontal passage
with mid to upper 90s expected. Lower humidity values will keep
heat indices in check, so we are not expecting a continuation of
heat advisories. Even drier air will move into the area through
midweek and we are likely to see afternoon dewpoints mixing out
into the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is certainly atypical for
mid to late August. So while highs will stay near or a little
above normal, low temperatures will drop to below normal levels.
Wednesday morning will be the coolest of the week with lows dropping
into the low to mid 60s well inland. Areas closer to the coast will
see upper 60s/lower 70s.
The east coast trough will begin to lift out Thursday and Friday.
However, guidance has come into good agreement that a piece of the
trough will be left behind. This lingering vorticity will develop
into a closed upper low and slowly retrograde west across the
northern Gulf through the weekend. This will signal a return of
rain chances late in the week into the weekend, mainly across the
southern half of the area, as moisture rebounds on the east side
of the upper low. The increased rain chances and cloudiness will
help keep temperatures near normal levels. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 96 71 93 67 94 68 92 / 40 10 0 0 0 10 10 40
Pensacola 79 97 74 94 72 94 74 92 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 20 40
Destin 80 96 75 93 75 93 75 91 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 20 40
Evergreen 72 94 66 91 63 92 66 92 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Waynesboro 73 94 67 92 63 91 63 93 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 71 92 66 89 63 89 66 89 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 74 97 67 94 66 95 69 92 / 40 10 0 0 0 10 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051-
052-261>266.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ053>060.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-
075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 1:25 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, MESOSCALE UPDATE...---------------
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