JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 15, 10:40 AM EDT476
FXUS63 KJKL 151440 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through this
evening. After a lull on Thursday, the shower and thunderstorm
chances return to close out the week.
- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through the work week following a bit of a cool down today
owing to the showers around.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024
Just sent out a quick update to remove mention of morning fog from
the forecast now that fog has dissipated/lifted into low stratus
across the area. Also incorporated the latest obs into the hourly
T/Td forecast elements to establish new trends there. Made a few
adjustments to cloud cover based on current satellite trends as
well, but these should not lead to any sky cover changes in the
zone forecast text product. Based on current trends, may also need
to adjust today's high temperatures a bit by noon to 1 pm today
at several locations around the forecast area. Still expecting
shower and storm coverage to gradually increase through out the
day, especially during peak heating this afternoon, so no changes
made to the overall precip probability forecast just yet.
UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024
Just a quick update to the grids, mainly to fine tune the PoPs and
thunder chances per the latest radar trends. Did also include the
current obs and tendencies into the T/Td grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of stacked low pressure
spinning over Kentucky and slowly working east. This has kept damp
conditions around through the night with times of showers and fog
beneath mostly cloudy skies and amid light southerly winds.
Temperatures and dewpoints are similar throughout the forecast
area - in this mild and moist environment - with readings in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in better
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
compared to 24 hours ago. They all depict an open 5h low easing
east through Kentucky today along with a healthy amount of mid
level energy. The cyclonic flow associated with this low also
tracks off to the east later tonight with a weak area of ridging
moving to over eastern Kentucky on Thursday - as 5h heights peak
that afternoon. Thereafter, the pattern starts to flatten and more
energy starts to work into the state well in advance of the next
area of troughing inbound from the southern Plains. The model
spread has shrunk with the latest runs on account of the ECMWF
and NAM/GFS timing of the exiting trough being more similar.
Accordingly, the NBM was used as the starting point for the short
term grids along with the incorporation of the CAMs' details for
PoPs and timing through tonight.
Sensible weather features a damp and somewhat cool day with
scattered to numerous showers and potential thunderstorms around
into the evening. Some drying will take place tonight, but most
likely this will only prompt the development of a thicker, and
possibly widespread, blanket of fog for much of the late night
hours. In addition, the higher moisture than normal will make for
another mild night and near uniform temperatures. Thursday looks
to be one of the drier days of the week but still a stray shower
or storm will be possible late in the afternoon and during the
evening - mainly in the east. Less showers around will make for a
warmer day with near normal temperatures, as well.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances through this evening. The temperatures and
dewpoints from the NBM were not adjusted much considering the high
levels of RH through the night time periods.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024
Eventful extended period yet again. The period will start Thursday
night with increasing clouds, followed by incoming showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday, as a stationary front is
laid out across the state. This will eventually transition to a low
pressure system and warm front moving through the state throughout
the day on Saturday, combined with an upper level shortwave and low
moving across the state. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms
on both days, mainly in the afternoon during peak heating. SPC and
WPC both have marginal risk areas across the CWA from Friday into
Saturday morning, so will need to keep an eye out on convection
during this time period. This system will eventually exit on Sunday.
However, NW flow at the surface on the back edge of the shortwave,
and residual moisture at the surface, will lead to chance pops in
the afternoon, mainly in the far eastern CWA.
Monday looks to be one of our better days during the extended
period, with a brief upper level ridge passing over during the first
half of the day, and fair weather diurnal clouds expected. However,
by the afternoon a shortwave starts to impact the Ohio Valley from
the west, which could lead to some isolated pops as it passes over,
mainly during the evening and overnight for the JKL CWA.
Admittedly models are not in good agreement through much of the
extended period, but by Tuesday, they are completely unreliable. The
NBM went with chance pops throughout the day, likely pulling from a
combination of no pops and high pressure from the ECMWF, and the GFS
which shows 2 separate systems passing over the state during the
day with more widespread pops.
Overall, temperatures should remain fairly even-kill throughout the
period despite the frontal boundaries and airmass changes. Highs
should generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in
the upper 50s and low 60s. Monday will start to see some change in
this pattern. Monday morning will see the lowest temperatures in the
mid and upper 50s due to mostly clear skies and high pressure
overhead, leading to some potential ridge/valley differences. By
Tuesday, stronger SW flow will take hold, which could potentially
increase afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Then again,
this is also the point in the forecast where uncertainty is high, so
these values are subject to change over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 EDT WED MAY 15 2024
The lull in the convection is coming to an end across the area.
This should also help to clear out some of the lowest clouds and
fog patches. However, a changeable mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR
conditions will persist through the morning and likely carry into
early afternoon. MVFR and IFR conditions are likely to prevail
until around 18Z before better, VFR, conditions should be able to
hold outside of showers and storms. Later tonight, in the wake of
the low pressure departing to the east, lower CIGs and visibility
can be expected with a potential for areas of dense fog into
dawn, Thursday. Winds will largely remain light through the
period, though any stronger storm near TAF sites could produce a
brief period of gusty and erratic winds. A more persistent
northwest wind of 5 to 10 kts is expected to set in later this
afternoon and continue into the upcoming night.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 15, 10:40 AM EDT---------------
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