NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 18, 7:00 AM AST757
WTNT45 KNHC 180238
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show
limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest
convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle.
This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the
system from the northwest into the central core. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this
the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.
The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue
for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the
north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States
should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast,
northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring
the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday
night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic
thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.
Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries
to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence
is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively
warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as
show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the
intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it
moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition.
Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low
is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern
Atlantic between 72-96 h.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy
rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Aug 18, 7:00 AM AST---------------
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