MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:41 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...862
FXUS64 KMOB 152342
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours,
except for reduced ceilings and visibility reductions near a few
lingering rain showers/isolated thunderstorms early this evening
and additional isolated to scattered convective development again
Friday afternoon. Winds will generally become light/variable to
calm this evening through early Friday morning then turn
southeasterly to southerly at 5-10 knots late Friday morning
through Friday afternoon. /21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon as the area
remains on the eastern periphery of an expansive upper level
ridge. Temperatures have risen into the lower and middle 90s with
a few spots reaching the upper 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through this evening for southeast Mississippi, far
southwest Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle where
heat index values have climbed into the 108-112 degree range.
Drier air in areas further east is helping to keep heat index
values below advisory thresholds. A few showers and storms have
started to develop along the coast and in areas where convective
temperatures are being reached. Coverage should gradually increase
and become more scattered as we head later into the afternoon
with storms initiating along outflow boundaries. A few of these
storms could become strong or marginally severe with gusty winds
given SBCAPEs of 3000 J/Kg and DCAPES near 1000 J/Kg. Similar to
yesterday, storms should taper off through the early evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Mostly dry conditions will then
be in place overnight, although, there could be an isolated
shower or storm near the immediate coast as a result of the land
breeze circulation and a weakening surface boundary over the Gulf
waters. The upper level ridge will linger overhead as we head into
Friday, but may weaken slightly as a closed low digs across the
Great Lakes region. Temperatures will rise back into the lower and
middle 90s again tomorrow afternoon. Drier air will continue to
linger over portions of south central Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle due to a surface ridge nosing in from the east. Better
boundary layer moisture will be in place in areas along and west
of I-65 which will result in heat index values up to 110 degrees.
Therefore, another Heat Advisory has been issued for southeast
Mississippi and far southwest Alabama counties on Friday. Another
round of diurnally driven showers and storms are expected to
develop Friday afternoon with a few storms potentially producing
strong gusty winds. The highest coverage of showers and storm will
likely be along the coast and in areas west of I-65 where the
better moisture will be in place. Similar to today, this activity
likely won't peak until after Heat Advisory conditions are met. If
you're heading down to the beaches, there is a low risk of rip
currents in effect through Friday. /14
SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
An upper trof over the Great Lakes region steadily amplifies into
a longwave trof over the eastern states during the period, while
an upper ridge over the southern states retreats from the forecast
region and amplifies into a massive upper ridge over the central
CONUS. A surface ridge oriented along/near the northern Gulf coast
promotes a moist southerly/southwesterly surface flow over the
forecast area for Saturday. A surface low well to the north (associated
with the amplifying upper trof) is anticipated to bring a cold
front through the forecast area from Sunday afternoon into the
overnight hours. Abundant deep layer moisture will be in place
over the area on Saturday with precipitable water values near 2
inches after which the evolving upper trof pattern allows for a
bit drier air to flow into the area on Sunday with precipitable
water values dropping to near 1.75 inches. MLCAPE values on
Saturday range from 750-1250 J/kg with the higher values over
interior areas, then on Sunday MLCAPE values will typically be
1300-1900 J/kg. DCAPE values on Saturday will be near 500-750
J/kg, then for Sunday DCAPE values will be near 1500-2000 J/kg.
There is the possibility of an MCS developing along with the
approaching cold frontal boundary Sunday afternoon into the
overnight hours which will need to be monitored. Have gone with
slight chance to chance pops for Saturday with a typical diurnal
convective cycle anticipated, and could see a strong storm or two.
For Sunday, have gone with chance to good chance pops which taper
off into the overnight hours due to a combination of diurnal
convection along with the potential MCS. With the higher
MLCAPE/DCAPE, strong storms will be possible and can't rule out
severe storm development. Lows each night mostly range from the
lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on
Saturday will be mostly in the mid 90s, then Sunday will have
highs in the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory may become
necessary for the western portion of the area on Saturday then
for all but the eastern third of the area on Sunday. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through Sunday night. /29
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
The eastern states longwave trof continues to amplify on Monday
then breaks down Wednesday into Thursday. Progressively drier air
flows into the area Monday into Tuesday in the wake of Sunday
night's cold frontal passage, then deep layer moisture stages a
gradual comeback mainly on Thursday. Have gone with mostly dry
conditions on Monday except for slight chance pops near the coast,
then dry conditions prevail for Tuesday and Wednesday. Slight
chance to chance pops return on Thursday as deep layer moisture
begins to improve. Highs look to be 90-95 Monday and Tuesday then
highs in the lower to mid 90s follows for Wednesday and Thursday.
At this time, it appears that heat index values will remain below
advisory criteria through the period, providing at least some
relief. /29
MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
A light to at times moderate diurnal flow pattern continues into
the early part of next week. No impacts are expected outside of
locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. /14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 77 93 74 96 76 97 74 95 / 20 50 0 30 20 40 40 20
Pensacola 79 91 78 93 79 96 76 96 / 30 40 0 20 20 40 50 20
Destin 79 92 78 92 80 93 78 93 / 20 20 0 20 20 40 50 20
Evergreen 73 96 72 96 73 96 71 93 / 10 20 0 30 30 50 30 10
Waynesboro 74 96 73 97 72 98 68 93 / 10 40 10 40 20 40 20 10
Camden 73 94 73 93 73 93 70 90 / 10 20 10 40 30 40 20 0
Crestview 74 96 72 96 74 96 73 95 / 10 30 0 20 20 50 40 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051-052-261-
263-265.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 6:41 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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